Capital chased certainty, not activity
ENRC M&A in the first half of 2026 (H1’26) was characterized by a selective market in which capital moved decisively toward assets tied to power demand, infrastructure control, LNG-linked gas exposure, critical minerals, and renewable generation platforms.
The defining feature of H1’26 was concentration. Compared with H1’25, ENRC M&A deal value rose sharply in H1’26 even as deal volume declined suggesting that buyers were not pursuing activity for its own sake but were willing to pay up for assets that could materially strengthen their strategic position. The market was quieter by count but supported by larger and more strategic transactions as ENRC deal value increased 60.3 percent year over year (YoY) and 20.7 percent compared to H2’25, while total deal volume declined 9.4 percent YoY and 18.4 percent versus H2’25. That value story should be read with some care. A small number of very large transactions, particularly in power and utilities, had an outsized effect on aggregate deal value. That does not diminish the broader trend, but it reinforces the need to look at value and volume together: H1’26 was not a busier market so much as a more concentrated one.
Power and utilities sector drove the value story, with deal value increasing 258.0 percent YoY and 241.2 percent versus H2’25, despite a modest decline in volume. Oil and gas remained active but less influenced by mega-merger activity than in prior periods, with H1’26 deal value down 2.4 percent YoY and 30.4 percent versus H2’25. The chemicals, mining, and renewables sub-sectors each recorded selective pockets of strength, while paper and forest products remained characterized by small, asset-specific transactions. At the same time, lower volume was not only a function of selectivity. In commodity-exposed subsectors, geopolitical volatility and pricing uncertainty also delayed transactions, as buyers and sellers worked through how to value assets in a less predictable market.
Several forces shaped the first half of the year. First, rising electricity demand emerged as an increasingly important driver of dealmaking. Growth in AI-related data centers prompted US power companies to pursue generation and transmission assets that could help meet future power needs,1 reinforcing the strategic value of energy infrastructure.
Second, natural gas remained a central focus of M&A activity. Buyers prioritized high-quality inventory, gas-weighted assets, and multi-basin portfolios as LNG export growth and increasing power-sector consumption strengthened the long-term investment case for natural gas.2
Third, private capital did not retreat—it moved toward larger transactions and infrastructure-like cash flows. Deal volume for PE increased 2.5 percent YoY while strategic volume declined 16.6 percent YoY. In terms of transaction value, PE deal value increased 51.4 percent YoY and 7.2 percent versus H2’25. Sponsors were not simply betting on a cyclical recovery, they were increasingly targeting regulated utilities, renewable platforms, environmental services, and infrastructure-backed operating businesses supported by long-term demand fundamentals. In power and utilities, that interest increasingly extends beyond full utility ownership to infrastructure-adjacent assets such as transmission, distribution, and development-stage projects that can support future load growth.
Distinct strategic priorities emerged across ENRC subsectors during H1’26. Power and utilities buyers focused on acquiring power generation, transmission, distribution, and regulated utility assets positioned to benefit from growing electricity demand, primarily from AI datacenters. Oil and gas buyers targeted shale assets and LNG-linked opportunities. Chemicals buyers sought specialty capabilities, formulation expertise, cost synergies, and margin improvement opportunities. Mining buyers focused on critical minerals exposure and growth pipelines. Renewable energy buyers targeted solar, wind, and storage portfolios. Paper and forest products buyers focused on expanding capabilities and strengthening regional footprints. The key question for H2’26 is no longer whether attractive assets are available, but whether buyers can fund, permit, connect, integrate, and operate them effectively.
Lastly, outside-in signals reinforce the same story. The Financial Times reported that the US power and utilities sector experienced an unprecedented wave of M&A activity in the first five months of 2026, driven largely by the rapid expansion of AI-related power demand.3 Reuters identified NextEra’s Dominion’s proposed combination as tied to AI-driven data center electricity demand and noted that the deal would expand NextEra into the PJM interconnection region.4 Bloom Energy’s 2026 data center power report described power availability as a defining boundary on data center growth and highlighted the move toward gigawatt-scale AI factories5 , reinforcing why power infrastructure assets attracted buyer interest in H1’26. These external signals align closely with the H1’26 ENRC data, where capital concentrated on assets that offered the strongest combination of demand visibility, infrastructure scarcity, and strategic relevance.