KPMG Economics
A source for unbiased economic intelligence to help improve strategic decision-making.
What’s impacting labor market participation? Why are some sectors faring better than others? How do you separate the signal from the noise? KPMG Economics answers these questions and more, providing timely insight and analysis into the economic indicators. We monitor trends and identify potential opportunities that could impact your strategic objectives. Our perspectives look at both the short-term and long-term economic factors that are critical to guiding strategic decisions.
Our latest thinking
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Trouble in the Tetons… Disinflation and the global outlook
The post-pandemic world is expected to be more inflation prone.
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Industry Insights with KPMG Economics
Discussions around the latest trends and what the future might hold across key industries with Chief Economist Diane Swonk
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After the fall: A structural change watch list
Inflation and higher rates are plaguing developed and developing countries alike.
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KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
Economic Coordinates
Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.
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Consumers spend inside during heatwaves
Retail sales tied to home buying, like furniture and electronics, lost ground.
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Inflation still too hot
Food prices pick up, especially beef.
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Consumers drain savings to spend
The outlier is spending on food; it has been trending down in real terms since August 2021.
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Healthcare, finance, wholesale trade and leisure and hospitality added jobs in July
Average hourly earnings rose 4.4% annually.
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Employment gains moderate
Construction, healthcare and leisure and hospitality are adding jobs.
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A goldilocks JOLTS report in June
This JOLTS report ticked all the Fed’s boxes.
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Fewer openings for job hunters
Fewer job openings in 44 states in July.
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Pause with a hawkish clause
Stronger economic growth, in and of itself, justifies higher rates.
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A “patient and resolute” Fed
The goal is to defeat, not just cool, inflation.
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Industrial production beats expectations
Seasonal auto production and heatwaves distorted July data.
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Aircraft orders lift durable goods orders
Other gains came from computers, electronics and electrical goods.
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Trade deficit shrinks
The U.S. trade deficit with China fell by $2.1 billion in June.
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Mexico wins in the push to friend-shore
Mexico is now the top U.S. trading partner.
KPMG Economics in the news:
- Second-quarter GDP benchmark shows steady economic growth | The Washington Post
The economy has remarkably avoided a recession,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “That’s put the Fed in a nice position; it’s emboldened them to really go all in against inflation. But the question is: How long can this strength persist? Are there still effects from higher interest rates that we haven’t seen yet?”
July 27, 2023 | The Washington Post
- Today Might Be the Fed's Last Rate Hike | Barron's
Investors and Fed watchers should expect the FOMC’s official statement on Wednesday to “leave the door open” to additional rate hikes as needed, writes Diane Swonk, KPMG’s chief economist.
July 27, 2023 | Barron’s
- Fed Raises Rates to Highest Level in 22 Years | Yahoo Finance
The improvement in inflation we have seen without a big increase in unemployment suggests that they may be able to get there with less pain than many thought,” said KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk.
July 26, 2023 | Yahoo Finance
- Medical inflation in the U.S. is poised to pick up again: Chief economist - Video - Bloomberg
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the Fed's rate path and U.S. economy.
July 25, 2023 | Bloomberg
- What needs to happen to fix the housing market? Experts have some suggestions | The Hill
“More supply means the prices will come down on net. But it depends on what region of the country you’re looking at and where they’re building and whether that’s where people are moving to and forming households,” said KPMG senior economist Yelena Maleyev.
July 25, 2023 | The Hill
- Four things to know about the rapidly changing housing market | The Hill
“A majority of homeowners are locked into a sub-4 percent mortgage rate and so they’re not expected to list their homes easily unless there’s some sort of life event in which they do have to list their homes,” senior economist Yelena Maleyev added.
July 17, 2023 | The Hill
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KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
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