KPMG Economics
A source for unbiased economic intelligence to help improve strategic decision-making.
What’s impacting labor market participation? Why are some sectors faring better than others? How do you separate the signal from the noise? KPMG Economics answers these questions and more, providing timely insight and analysis into the economic indicators. We monitor trends and identify potential opportunities that could impact your strategic objectives. Our perspectives look at both the short-term and long-term economic factors that are critical to guiding strategic decisions.
Our latest thinking
Mapping the Care Economy in 2026
State and industry fault lines.
The butterfly effect: Geopolitical shocks, policy uncertainty & the economic outlook
Consumers expect more inflation.
Biannual Supply Chain Report: Five Trends Shaping the Economic Landscape
From disruption to continual risk.
2026 Trade Outlook: A Herculean Effort
Tariffs are not in the rearview mirror.
Global Navigator from KPMG Economics
The Investment Opportunity Index
The great exit:
College-educated mothers of young children leaving the labor force.
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KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
Economic Coordinates
Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.
No results found.
Households and businesses are taking on more debt
The savings rate fell in 2025.
Consumers hibernate but inflation remains buoyant
Rate hike may be on the table.
Distortions due to government shutdown weigh on CPI
Prices at the pump moved on Middle East threats.
Consumers took on more debt to start the year
Student loans limit credit applications.
No results found.
Job openings rise, layoffs fall
Small businesses most affected by events.
Strike derails healthcare gains
Tech, manufacturing and professional services lost jobs.
Breakeven for payrolls could slip
Worker shortages in healthcare.
Payrolls revised down in 2025, rebounded in January
Long-term unemployment ebbed.
No results found.
Dovish pause, hawkish undertones
Decisions remain on a “meeting by meeting basis”
Fed splinters even further in March
Support for rate cuts and hikes.
Fed not declaring victory over inflation prematurely
Inflation still a worry.
A pregnant pause at the Fed
Voting members change.
No results found.
New home sales plunge
Inventories remain high.
Multifamily construction drove starts in January
Demand remains weak despite lower mortgage rates.
New home sales lost ground at the end of 2025
Housing to remain muted in 2026.
Housing starts spiked at the end of 2025
Harsh winter weather hit the biggest housing market.
No results found.
January construction spending weakens as uncertainty builds
Construction faces many headwinds
Industrial output outpaced expectations for February
Utility output fell as weather warmed across the country.
Durable goods order stumble
Softer reading for business investment.
Narrowing of the trade deficit could be short-lived
Deficits narrowed with Canada, Mexico, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand.
No results found.
Smaller companies and some consumers lose access to credit
Banks eased credit to firms that benefit from AI.
A tale of two economies
Lower rates will benefit parts of the economy.
Uncertain economic outlook sways bankers
Lending standards are becoming tighter.
Access to business loans tightens
A less favorable economic outlook
No results found.
Central bank scanner: Oil shock collides with monetary policy
Rate cutting plans shift.
A fair wind lifts the forecast
Quarterly LATAM economic outlook.
Central bank scanner: Central banks winding up rate-cutting cycle
Inflation lingers.
Global Economic and Geopolitical Outlook webcast
Join KPMG’s Global Economic and Geopolitical Outlook webcast on March 31, 2026 for a timely discussion with the firm’s global chief economists, global geopolitics lead, and global head of AI and digital innovation. In this 60‑minute session, leaders will gain practical insights to help translate global developments into confident, well‑timed decisions in an increasingly interconnected world.
KPMG Economics in the news:
- The viral ‘Ghost GDP’ essay predicting a devastating AI doom loop is a warning to CEOs as they decide how much work to automate
Fortune examines concerns raised in a viral essay predicting a future “Ghost GDP” driven by AI-driven productivity gains that fail to translate into broad economic demand. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk warns of an “undercurrent of betrayal” in the labor market, noting profits are rising even as compensation declines. She cautions that companies announcing AI-enabled layoffs before efficiency gains materialize “could prove penny-wise and pound-foolish,” highlighting risks of eroding trust and weakening economic resilience.
February 24, 2026 | Fortune
- Swonk warns profit–pay divergence is fueling instability and deepening public distrust
KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk is warning that the record post‑WWII gap between corporate profits and labor’s share of GDP is creating an “undercurrent of betrayal” across the U.S. economy. Swonk links the divergence to rising social and economic instability, noting that the wealthiest 20% of households have driven nearly all spending growth since the pandemic while most Americans struggle with basics such as housing, food and insurance. She says generative AI and tariff volatility are deepening job insecurity, with CEOs already citing AI to justify freezes and layoffs — risking backlash before productivity gains appear.
February 23, 2026 | Fortune
- Trump brings in new 10% tariff as Supreme Court rejects his global import taxes
President Trump has imposed a new 10% global tariff to replace ones struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, calling the ruling "terrible" and lambasting the justices who rejected his trade policy as "fools.” The Supreme Court, decision was a major victory for businesses and U.S. states that had challenged the duties, opening the door to potentially billions of dollars in tariff refunds. In recent weeks, hundreds of firms have filed lawsuits contesting the tariffs, in a bid to get in line for a refund. But the decision by the majority does not directly mention refunds, likely handing back the question of how that process might work to the Court of International Trade. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, warned that the cost of litigation could make recouping funds difficult for smaller firms. "Unfortunately, I'd say curb your enthusiasm, although I understand the desire for relief," she said.
February 21, 2026 | BBC
- What the Supreme Court tariffs ruling means for consumers and businesses
MS NOW reports that although IEEPA‑based tariffs were struck down, overlapping duties may limit short‑term price relief. Refund logistics remain unclear. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk cautions reimbursements could become “a nightmare,” especially for small firms with limited documentation resources, and notes that several alternative tariff authorities remain available to policymakers. “Small firms are not likely to fare as well as large firms due to the paperwork, time and potential for additional legal challenges by the administration on refunds,” Swonk said.
February 20, 2026 | MS NOW
- Multifamily housing starts jumped to highest level of 2025 in December
There was no real recovery in the housing market in 2025, according to Matthew Nestler, senior economist at KPMG. “Despite the uptick in starts and permits at year-end, builders continue to grapple with rising construction costs, tariff and economic uncertainty and hesitant buyers,” Nestler wrote on LinkedIn. “We expect residential investment to remain weak this year; falling interest rates in the back half will help stimulate the sector.” Nestler also noted that January and February 2026 numbers could be weak due to unusually bad winter weather across the South, the country’s largest housing market.
February 18, 2026 | MultiFamily Dive
- Why Americans feel left behind by a growing economy
Economic output and the stock market are surging, consumers are spending big and the post-pandemic recession that many expected never materialized. But many feel terrible about their finances, with debt at all-time highs, and the majority of Americans incorrectly believe the country is in an economic slowdown. It’s thematically similar to the “vibecession,” a term popularized in 2022 to explain the disconnect between solid economic data and negative consumer sentiment readings exiting the pandemic. It can also draw comparisons to the “K-shaped economy,” a phrase illustrating how Americans can feel vastly different depending on their income bracket. “I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “I’ve been doing this for 40 years. And that’s a long time to never see anything like this.”
February 18, 2026 | CNBC
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KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
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