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The parental work disruption index: A new measure of the childcare crisis

Lack of access to childcare results in millions of lost work hours, which have downstream effects on productivity.
September 30, 2024

Introduction

There is a childcare crisis in the US today. The lack of access to quality and affordable childcare negatively affects labor force participation, productivity growth and overall economic growth.

Women are disproportionately affected, but men are not immune. Children’s development is suffering, especially in low-income households where parents face Catch-22 decisions between caring and providing for their families. Coworkers and extended families are being stressed. Businesses experience productivity losses and fewer available workers. Governments face fewer full-time workers paying into social programs for retirees.

Our last report showed that the childcare crisis has resulted in more Americans working part-time or missing work, especially post-pandemic. This report leverages Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) datasets, including previously unpublished data by gender and age, to provide an estimate of how many workers are impacted by inadequate childcare options. We call this the Parental Work Disruption Index.

For the first time, we can comprehensively quantify and track, on an ongoing monthly basis, how the childcare crisis is affecting different groups of working Americans. Work hours are being lost by the millions. This has spillover effects for workers and their children, businesses, governments and the overall economy.

Hurdles to work

The labor force participation rate in the US for prime-age women, defined as those aged 25-54, hit a record high of 78.4% in August 2024. Though women with young children helped power these gains in recent years, progress has stalled. [1] This group still has a much lower labor force participation rate than men with young children.

Despite the overall gains, the women’s labor force participation rate in the US still lags other developed and developing countries. Men’s participation rate has bounced back post-pandemic but is still on a long-term downward trend.

Why is this important? The potential growth of an economy is determined by the size of the labor force and how productive these workers are. Childcare problems undermine both sides of that equation.

Hardest on women

In its Current Population Survey (CPS), the BLS collects three different monthly datasets about the effects of childcare problems on employment:

  1. Full-time workers who missed work due to childcare problems
  2. Full-time workers who worked part-time (1-34 hours per week) due to childcare problems
  3. Part-time workers who worked part-time (1-34 hours per week) due to childcare problems.

In 2023, the average monthly number of workers impacted was 47,000 for the first dataset, 92,000 for the second and 1.1 million for the third.

Charts 1-3 show the distribution of men and women in each category over time. Childcare problems are affecting women much more than men. However, the share of men being affected is rising across all three categories:

  • Women comprise 77% of full-time workers who missed work due to childcare problems thus far this year (see Chart 1). That is down from a high of 92% in 2006 but is still substantial. Men’s share increased to 26% in 2017 from 8% in 2006 and stands at 23% year to date (YTD), the second highest on record.
  • Of full-time workers who needed to cut their hours to part-time due to childcare problems, 66% are women; 34% are men (see Chart 2). 
  • Of those working part-time due to childcare problems, 90% are women (see Chart 3). The BLS classifies these workers as “voluntary” part-timers. However, there is often little choice due to the lack of access to quality and affordable childcare. The proportion of men is at 10%, more than double what it was in 2000.

Charts 1, 2 and 3

Source: KPMG Economics, BLS, Current Population Survey; Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Absences are costly

The data from these three series combined provide an estimate of the number of workers who worked part-time or missed work due to childcare problems. Between 1.2 and 1.5 million workers are affected by inadequate childcare options each month (see Chart 4). Women make up almost 90% of these workers.

That translates to between nine and 26 million hours of potential work lost due to childcare problems in any given week. The losses per year are even more staggering, ranging between 468 million to 1.4 billion hours.[2]

These lost hours result in lower pay for workers, stressing family budgets. Losing six hours per week results in a sizable loss, between $4,680 and $9,026 per year for individual workers.[3] Even losing only one hour each week results in an annual loss of between $780 and $1,504. That severely strains households that have spent down savings and are still facing elevated price levels.

There are clear spillover effects on children. Lower earnings for low-income households result in financial instability and even hunger.[4] Educational disparities widen; many children never catch up.[5] Unstable childcare arrangements exacerbate these outcomes, harming children’s development and creating another hurdle to social mobility.[6]

The lost work hours negatively affect businesses. They lose the productivity and output from workers who are absent. There are additional losses, as coworkers must pick up the slack.

This leads to burnout. The blow to productivity and output compound over time, harming competitiveness. Together, they negatively affect the potential growth of the US economy.  

There are seasonal trends in the data. The numbers increase during the end-of-year holidays and the beginning of the year when school is in full swing and illnesses are more rampant. The numbers fall during the summer when women’s employment usually declines. Still, the trend post-pandemic is markedly worse than it was pre-pandemic. 

Chart 4

Workers impacted by inadequate childcare options, by gender (January 2000-August 2024)

Number, NSA

Source: KPMG Economics, BLS, Current Population Survey

A blow to lifetime earnings

Chart 5 shows that women in their prime working years are disproportionately affected by inadequate childcare options. This is evidence of what researchers call the child penalty. This is when women’s career opportunities and lifetime earning potential are hit and never fully recover when they have children.

Women aged 25-34 and 35-44 together account for around 70% of all workers affected. Their share has not changed much over time. In certain months, this has added up to over half a million women in each group. Women aged 45-54 are also impacted; their proportion has grown over time.

The shares of women aged 55-64 and 65+ have increased since 2000. This shows how the childcare crisis is affecting the grandparents of young children. They are altering their work arrangements to fill in gaps in care.

The only group less impacted than they were in the past are women aged 16-19 and 20-24. Much of that is due to falling birth rates for those age groups.

Men are increasingly being affected by childcare problems. Though the total number is still much lower than for women, men’s share has doubled from 6% in 2000 to 12% so far in 2024. This has been driven by men in their prime working years of 25-54.

Chart 5

Composition of workers impacted by inadequate childcare options, by gender and age (2000-August 2024)

Percent, annual average, NSA

Source: KPMG Economics, BLS, Current Population Survey

It’s getting worse

Chart 6 displays the percent of the employed population that is impacted by inadequate childcare options: 1.6% of all employed women in the United States – totaling more than one million individuals each month – are working part-time or missing work due to childcare problems.

That percentage is even higher for women aged 25-34 and 35-44, reaching over 3% in some months. These numbers are all on an upward trend since the pandemic. Less than 0.2% of employed men are affected, though this has grown from 0.07% in 2000.

Chart 6

Share of employed population impacted by inadequate childcare options, by gender and age (December 2000-August 2024)

Percent, 12 month moving average, NSA

Source: KPMG Economics, BLS, Current Population Survey

Chart 7 shows the Parental Work Disruption Index. It compares the number of workers affected by inadequate childcare options to the pre-pandemic baseline.

The index declined in the first year of the pandemic mainly because hundreds of thousands of those classified as “voluntary” part-time workers left the workforce entirely when their usual childcare arrangements fell through. The ranks of these individuals dropped from 979,000 in April 2019 to 589,000 in April 2020. That shows that their ability to work was highly contingent upon having steady childcare support.

Since the initial Covid shock, the index is on a clear upward trend. As of August 2024, the 12-month moving average index is at 122. This means there are 22% more workers impacted by inadequate childcare options compared to the pre-pandemic baseline.

Chart 7

Parental work disruption index (January 2020-August 2024)

Index, 2019 average=100

Source: KPMG Economics, BLS, Current Population Survey

Bottom Line

The childcare crisis has resulted in a sizable part of the workforce that is either working part-time or missing work entirely due to childcare problems. This has become a structural feature of the US economy and society.

For the first time, we can quantify the scope and magnitude of the problem. Between 1.2 to 1.5 million individuals, nearly 90% of whom are women, are affected in any given month. This is on a clear upward trend compared to the pre-pandemic baseline.

That results in millions of lost work hours, which have downstream effects on productivity, contribute to burnout among working parents and coworkers and hurt bottom lines. Lower earnings hurt women’s career mobility and negatively affect children’s ability to develop and succeed. Collectively, the work disruptions caused by inadequate childcare options dampen the potential growth of the entire US economy.

Footnote

  1. Bauer, Lauren and Noadia Steinmetz-Silber. “Prime-age women are still driving the labor market recovery.” The Hamilton Project. July 26, 2024.
  2. This is the sum of hours lost or potential hours lost from those missing work or working part-time due to childcare problems. It assumes that those who missed work lost 40 hours per week. It takes six hours as a lower bound estimate and 20 hours as an upper bound estimate of hours lost or potential hours lost due to part-time work. Finally, it multiplies these numbers by the average monthly number of people affected in 2023 for each of the three datasets. Multiplying the weekly figures by 52 yields the annual estimates.
  3. The lower bound estimate multiplies six by $15 and then by 52 for the annual estimate. $15 per hour is the wage required for federal contractors and has become a minimum wage for many of the largest American employers. The upper bound estimate multiplies six by $28.93, the average hourly earnings in 2023 of production and nonsupervisory workers. It then multiples that number by 52 for the annual estimate.
  4. Hill, Heather D. et. al. “The Consequences of Income Instability for Children’s Well-Being.” Child Development Perspectives. 7 (2). June 2013 and Wolf, Sharon and Taryn Morrissey. “Economic Instability, Food Insecurity, and Child Health in the Wake of the Great Recession.” Social Service Review. September 2017.
  5. Zhang, Liwei et. al. “Early Childhood Income Instability, Food Insecurity, and Adolescents’ Behavioral Health.” Family Relations. 72 (3). July 2023. 
  6. Pilarz, Alejandra Ros and Heather D. Hill. “Unstable and Multiple Child Care Arrangements and Young Children’s Behavior.” Early Childhood Research Quarterly. 29 (4). 2014 and Bratsch-Hines, M.E., et. al. “Child Care Instability From 6 to 36 Months and the Social Adjustment of Children in Prekindergarten.” Early Childhood Research Quarterly. 30. 2015.

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