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Core retail sales firm

Consumers resilient despite high gas prices.

April 21, 2026

Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, beating the consensus estimate for a 1.2% gain. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 1.9%, higher than the 1.3% expected.

Excluding autos and gasoline stations, retail sales still rose a solid 0.6%. The surge in gas prices in March contributed to a higher sales number, but consumption remained strong in other categories.

Gasoline station sales rose 15.5% in March, a record increase since the data were first released in January 1992. That reflects the 21.2% surge in gasoline prices in March, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as a result of the war in Iran. There is no substitute for gas; most Americans need to fill up their cars to get to work.

Despite the increase in spending on gas, retail sales displayed strength in other categories. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers rose another 0.5% after gaining 1% in February and declining 0.7% in January. Light vehicle sales rebounded to 16.3 million in March from 15.8 million in February and 14.9 million in January. A portion of the strong March data indicates recovery from the weak January owing to harsh winter weather.

Facing high gas prices, consumers tend to pivot to e-commerce, go on fewer trips and spend less at restaurants. E-commerce sales rose 1% in March and 10.1% compared to a year ago. Bar and restaurant sales were nearly flat, adding just 0.1%.

Sales at department stores rose 4.2% while electronics gained 0.9%. Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores increased 2.2%, rebounding from a decline in February; sales came in lower compared to a year ago. The housing market remains sluggish with little churn; consumers are wary of committing to big-ticket purchases.

Core retail sales (which exclude autos, gasoline, restaurants and building materials and feed into the GDP consumer spending calculation) rose 0.7%. For the quarter, core retail sales posted a 1.2% gain. That points to solid goods consumption during the first quarter.

The Federal Reserve will remain on hold in April.

photo of Matthew Nestler

Matthew Nestler

KPMG Senior Economist

Bottom Line

Consumers remained resilient in March. Despite the energy and supply chain shock, retail sales were firm. Looking ahead to next quarter, the lingering effects of the war in Iran risk squeezing discretionary budgets. Tax refunds will provide a cushion, but they will run out midyear. Gas prices will be higher for longer, even if the war ended tomorrow.  

The Federal Reserve will remain on hold in April. Many voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appear to be growing more concerned about inflation.

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Image of Matthew Nestler, PhD
Matthew Nestler, PhD
Senior Economist, KPMG Economics, KPMG US

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