Decision-making in an uncertain world: Insights from a Superforecaster

As scenario planning becomes more challenging amid heightened uncertainty, rapid change, historically low visibility, and a widening range of possible futures, stepping back to consider a company’s decision-making process can be a valuable exercise.

Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment Inc and a Superforecaster, says discipline, process, humility, and open-mindedness distinguish quality decision-making from choices all too often driven instead by gut instinct or familiarity.

Dr. Hatch says anyone can become better at forecasting, which, by his definition, underlies all decision-making. “By forecasting, we really mean decision-making, because every decision you make is basically a forecast: you’re going to take a course of action that you think will get you to your desired outcome,” he says. He describes good forecasting as assigning probabilities that align with the frequency of events (things you say are 80% likely will happen about 80% of the time). Superforecasters—forecasters who have ranked in the top 1–2% across Good Judgment’s tournaments—are especially skilled at this and consistently outperform the rest of the crowd in forecasting the likelihood of specific events or outcomes.

In a conversation with the KPMG BLC, Dr. Hatch shares his insights about what makes a good forecaster and how boards can help strengthen an organization’s scenario planning and decision-making capabilities.