Hiring and voluntary turnover remain low

November 3, 2026

Job openings ticked up in September. There were 7.5 million jobs available at the end of the month, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Openings have trended up since June and are higher than a year ago.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers, a measure of balance in the labor market tracked closely by the Federal Reserve, edged higher to 1.1 in September. This measure suggests a labor market in balance, though it does not help the millions of frustrated job seekers.

Real-time data from Indeed Hiring Lab show that advertised job postings at the end of October were flat compared to early September 2025. Postings have trended upwards since June, rising by nearly four percentage points. It is premature to consider this a reacceleration of labor demand; rather, it is evidence of stable demand.

The private sector added 236,000 openings. Professional and business services gained 106,000 openings but that moved the level back to where it was at the end of July. On a three-month moving average basis, job openings have stayed between 1.2 to 1.3 million for over a year and a half.

Job openings remain elevated in healthcare and social assistance at 1.5 million. Payroll gains have slowed this year for this sector. Providers across the care economy, in eldercare and childcare, are finding it hard to attract and retain workers. The restrictive immigration policy is constricting labor supply.

The hiring rate rose to 3.4% in September from 3.3%; it was flat at 3.3% on a three-month moving average basis. Layoffs were flat at 1.1% on that basis. Overall, hiring and layoffs have basically been flat for two years. This is the low-hire, low-fire environment.

Quits ticked up to 2.1% in September from 1.9% in August. On a three-month moving average basis, quits rose to 2% from 1.9%. 

Monthly shifts in accommodation and food services skewed the headline hiring and quits rates. Hiring jumped by 158,000 in the sector while quits surged by 197,000. (The monthly JOLTS data tend to be noisy so do not take that at face value.)

That means that across the rest of the economy, both hiring and quits were even lower. That is a continuation of the lack of churn across the economy, which is translating into low consumer sentiment as it puts a lid on wage increases.

ADP estimated a 1.8 percentage point wage premium for job changers (+4.8%) compared to job stayers (+3%) in September. Since March, those who remain in their jobs have received a median wage increase below inflation. Few are changing jobs.

The historically low unemployment rate of 4.2% is supporting consumption across the economy. A paycheck is a paycheck, so people are spending. Yet losing purchasing power weighs on consumers.