Low quits reveal job insecurities 

September 29, 2026

Job openings edged lower in August. There were 7.1 million jobs available at the end of the month, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).  

The ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers, a measure of balance in the labor market tracked closely by the Federal Reserve, equaled 1.0 in August. That indicates that the labor market now has one job for every unemployed job seeker. That is an awkward balance while the number of long-term unemployed remains elevated.

Real-time data from Indeed Hiring Lab show that advertised job postings steadily increased during the summer. In September, postings rose year-over-year for the first time in nearly four years. That rebound in job postings made up for a slight decline earlier in the year. 

The private sector shed 214,000 job openings while the public sector lost 42,000. Half of the declines showed up in professional and business services. On a three-month moving average basis, however, job openings have been flat since March. Both the number of hires and quits ticked higher while layoffs edged lower. That suggests the industry may be expanding.

Healthcare and social assistance lost 115,000 job openings, reverting to June's level. Payroll gains have been slower in this sector for close to two years. That is despite the rising demand due to the population aging. The restrictive immigration policy is reducing the labor supply for the care economy, where jobs had been expanding.  

The low-hire, low-fire labor market continues. The hiring rate has moved slightly between 3.3% to 3.4% on a three-month moving average basis for over two years. The layoff rate remains at an historically low 1.1%; in the early 2010s after the Great Financial Crisis, it rose as high as 1.5%. 

Right now, if you have a job, you are likely to keep it; if you do not have a job, it is very challenging to find a new one. Low hiring and low layoffs with the unemployment rate at 4.1% have resulted in an odd labor market.

The quits rate ticked lower to 1.9% in August from 2% on a three-month moving average basis. That voluntary turnover is near historic lows, though it reached 1.2% in late 2009. That is an extremely low bar; the level of quits is still closer to recession levels than what one would expect at full employment. The Federal Reserve can only manage the economy in aggregate; overall unemployment held near a historic low in August. 

Without the rise in quits in professional and business services in August, the overall quits rate would be even lower. That is likely temporary, as the sector has been reporting quit rates at exceedingly low levels. 

The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's Wage Growth tracker shows that the wage premium for job changers has increased since April. Median wage growth for job changers was 5% in August compared to 3.6% for job stayers. These data evaluate changes in median wages for continuously employed workers over a 12-month period. 

ADP Pay Insights estimated a 1.7 percentage points gap in August between job changers (+4.7%) and job stayers (+3%). Quits remain low but those who do change jobs are finding a premium. Many who remain in their jobs are receiving wage increases below inflation. That reduces people’s standard of living and is contributing to plummeting consumer sentiment and confidence.