Pre-holiday shopping beat expectations

January 14, 2026

November retail sales rose 0.6%, just ahead of market expectations for a 0.5% increase, while October was revised lower to a drop of 0.1% from flat. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.5%. Altogether, it’s a fairly solid report pointing to a resilient consumer despite signs of eroding consumer confidence, which has dropped to recession levels, worries about inflation and a slowing labor market.

Sales at motor vehicles and parts dealers rose 1%, which was in line with the rise in light vehicles sales to 15.6 million units in November from 15.3 in October. Gasoline station sales rose 1.4%, which was less than the 3% rise in gasoline prices, indicating a shortfall in those sales on a real, inflation-adjusted basis.

Sporting goods stores racked up solid increases, up 1.9%. So did building materials stores, up 1.3%, and apparel stores, up 0.9%, and miscellaneous retailers which added 1.7%. The latter category is comprised of florists, office supplies and stationery stores and gift, novelty and souvenir shops. Online retailers saw an increase of 0.4% while sales at restaurants and bars rose 0.6%.

Several categories were unchanged to slightly lower. They included general merchandise stores, electronics retailers and furniture stores, which declined 0.1%. In the prior month, furniture store sales rose near 2% ahead of tariff increases that took effect in mid-October. As for other retailers, consumers may have been waiting for promotions in December with an extra weekend for shopping.

Core retail sales, which feed into the calculation for consumer spending for GDP for the quarter, rose 0.4% after improving by a downwardly revised 0.6% in October. Those figures are consistent with our estimates for consumer spending to grow 2.8% in the fourth quarter and GDP to rise 3.4%. Core retail sales exclude spending on eating and drinking places, vehicles, gasoline and building materials stores.