Employers post fewer job openings
The Fed is increasingly divided.
January 7, 2026
The number of new job openings edged lower in November. There were 7.1 million jobs available, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). That compares with a downwardly revised 7.4 million openings at the end of October.
The ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers, a measure of balance in the labor market tracked closely by the Federal Reserve, slipped to 0.9 in November, the lowest since March 2021. In a stark reversal from the 2.0 peak ratio reached in the summer of 2022. There are now more unemployed job seekers than job openings. That speaks to how frozen the labor market has become, as those who have a job stay put and those without are locked out.
Real-time data from Indeed Hiring Lab show that advertised job postings rose in November and flatlined in the first half of December. Postings are flat since early September; that shows the demand for labor has remained steady but subdued.
Job openings remained stable among small businesses (firms with 1-49 employees); they have been flat since June. Today's ADP employment report found that small businesses added 9,000 jobs in December. That reverses some of the steep losses in October and November (120,000 total jobs). Hiring for the holiday season was delayed, while the spillover effects of the government government shutdown caused a temporary layoff spike in mid-November, but that is beginning to recede.
The three main industries supporting job growth since mid-2023 showed weaker demand last month. Job openings declined in health care and social assistance (66,000), leisure and hospitality (160,000) and state and local government (97,000). Hiring fell in all three industries while layoffs also declined.
Though the headline hiring rate slipped to 3.2% in November from 3.4%, it remained at 3.3% when measured on a three-month moving average basis, which is useful as the monthly JOLTS data can be noisy. If hiring further deteriorates in the coming months, that will put upward pressure on unemployment, even absent more layoffs.
The layoff rate ticked down to 1.1% from 1.2% in October. An increase in layoffs in accommodation and food services, due to the government shutdown and later holiday season, drove the October increase. Travel and tourism were hit hard by the shutdown and flight cancellations. Layoffs fell by 107,000 in accommodation and food services in November. Layoffs declined in most industries; that offers a sliver of good news for the labor market.
The quits rate edged up to 2% in November from an upwardly revised 1.9% in October. On a three-month moving average basis, quits have been flat for more than a year. They remain low by historical standards, yet they have not worsened; that suggests no further deterioration in the labor market.
The Labor Leverage Ratio, a proxy for worker bargaining power, recovered in November following a sharp decline in October. According to ADP data, pay growth for job stayers has been flat at 4.4% since August; it declined to 6.6% from 7.1% for those who change jobs; that is reducing the incentive to quit.
We expect three, one-quarter-point interest rate cuts this year, the first in June.
Matthew Nestler, PhD
KPMG Senior Economist
Bottom Line
The November JOLTS data shows a mixed labor market. Job openings and hiring worsened, while layoffs and quits suggest improvement. The lack of large-scale layoffs is a positive sign. Any further deterioration in hiring would lead to a rise in unemployment, which the Fed wants to avoid. We expect job growth to show a recovery in the December data, which will be released on Friday.
The Fed is increasingly divided. We expect three, one-quarter-point interest rate cuts this year, the first in June. Future policy will depend on the balance between employment and inflation.
Explore more
More job openings appeared in October
The good news is that layoffs were flat or declined in most industries.
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