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Job openings rise, layoffs fall

Small businesses most affected by events.

March 13, 2026

Job openings rose in January. There were 6.9 million jobs available, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). That is up from 6.6 million in December but down from 7.4 million a year ago.

Today’s release included the annual revision to JOLTS. In 2025, average job openings fell to 7.1 million from 7.3 million. The hiring rate was revised down to 3.3% from 3.4%. Layoffs and quits were flat. Slightly lower openings and hiring do not materially change our understanding of the 2025 labor market: low churn and relatively steady throughout the year.

In January, the ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers, a measure of balance in the labor market tracked closely by the Federal Reserve, was flat at 0.9. After rounding, it ticked up to 0.94 from 0.87. 

Real-time data from Indeed Hiring Lab show that advertised job postings have been flat since late November. That reversed a downturn in September and October. That shows labor demand has been stable.

Openings in 2025 were mainly revised down at small businesses (firms with 1-49 employees). Small businesses have struggled more from policy shocks and uncertainty. A recent uptick in job gains at small businesses in the ADP employment data suggests they entered the new year with positive momentum.

Job openings rose 370,000 in the private sector. Much of that increase was reversing sharp declines in December, including retail, finance and insurance and healthcare and social assistance. The monthly data are noisy. Openings edged higher in the public sector, driven by state and local government.

Professional and business services job openings fell below 1,000 for the first time since April 2020. Hires and quits rose while layoffs fell. Firms are reorganizing workforces around GenAI. Employment fell in 2025 in the administrative and waste services subindustry of professional and business services; that is likely weighing on openings. 

Hiring was flat at 3.3%. Despite a slight uptick last spring, hiring has been flat for over a year. Professional and business services posted the largest January increase in hiring.

Layoffs fell to 1% from 1.1%. On a three-month moving average basis, the layoff rate at 1% is the lowest it has been in a year and a half. Despite endless news stories about large layoffs, they remain at historically low levels. That is little solace for those who have lost their jobs and face difficulty getting work in the low hire environment. 

Quits were flat at 2%. The Labor Leverage Ratio, a proxy for worker bargaining power, was flat in January. It has increased since last fall.  Pay increases for job changers reached 6.3% in February, the lowest in over five years; that’s according to ADP. Pay growth for job stayers was even lower at 4.5%. That both reflects and shapes the lack of labor market churn.

Pay increases for job changers reached 6.3% in February, the lowest in over five years.

photo of Matthew Nestler, PhD

Matthew Nestler, PhD

KPMG Senior Economist

Bottom Line

The January JOLTS data shows a relatively stable labor market. There were even tentative improvements with a rise in job openings and a decline in layoffs. The monthly data are noisy; we will see if those are sustained. The low hiring environment is weighing on job seekers, especially those who have lost jobs or are entering the labor market for the first time.

The annual revision to the 2025 data was marginal: slightly lower openings and hiring. Layoffs and quits were flat. These data do not show a sharply deteriorating labor market. Meanwhile, service-sector inflation reaccelerated before the energy price shock due to the war in the Middle East. We expect the Federal Reserve to stand pat at next week’s FOMC meeting, but there will be dissents among doves and potentially even hawks.

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Matthew Nestler, PhD
Senior Economist, KPMG Economics, KPMG US

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