From Cravings to Consciousness
Navigating the “satiety economy” in the GLP-1 era
Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) therapies have moved rapidly from clinical breakthrough to cultural force, reshaping the food and beverage industry. The global GLP-1 market is projected to reach about $150 billion by 2035, with penetration approaching 11 percent worldwide and 20 percent in the United States.1 Adoption is already meaningful: In an April 2025 KPMG consumer survey, about 9 percent of respondents reported current use, with another 6 percent planning to use GLP-1s in the future.2 Uptake is especially strong among Gen Z and millennials, suggesting this shift will influence demand for years.
What matters most for industry leaders is how consumption itself is changing. Consumers on GLP1s are becoming far more intentional about how they use their calories, with eating occasions expected to deliver a clear return, whether that is satiety, protein density, digestive support, or overall nutritional value. Treats have not disappeared, but they are smaller and more deliberate, while day-to-day choices increasingly favor protein, freshness, hydration, and portion control. At scale, this shift signals a structural reset in the food and beverage profit pool, with volume driven brands under pressure and value dense offerings pulling ahead.3
GLP-1s are not eliminating demand; they are changing how consumers decide where their calories, and their spending, go.
Demand is shifting, but not in a straight line
The reallocation is underway, but it is far from smooth.
Shopping data already shows early movement. A December 2025 survey of US households finds that GLP-1 users reduce grocery spending by about 5.3 percent within six months, with higher income households cutting back by around 8.2 percent.4 Because these households account for a disproportionately large share of category volume, even modest changes can ripple quickly through portfolios.
By 2030, roughly 23 percent of US households using GLP1s could represent about 35 percent of total food and beverage units sold.5
Behavioral data adds more texture. Two other surveys show that GLP-1 users are not simply pulling back, but actively reshaping how they consume:6 For example, 55 percent report eating smaller portions and 53 percent report drinking more water.
These shifts are not confined to food and beverages. Similar ripple effects are beginning to appear in adjacent consumer categories such as apparel, where sustained weight loss is influencing fit, sizing, and replacement cycles. The signal is broader than any single category.
The durability of these patterns remains uneven, with persistence emerging as the key variable. A meaningful share of users discontinues GLP-1 therapy within the first year due to cost, access challenges, side effects, or weight loss plateaus, cycling on and off treatment rather than remaining continuously engaged.7
Even so, behavior does not fully revert. Many consumers retain elements of their new routines, including smaller portions and healthier choices, creating a forecasting challenge as demand moves in starts and stops rather than along a clean trend line.
One underappreciated shift, according to KPMG Global research currently in progress and due for release later this spring, is the quiet redefinition of protein’s role in the GLP‑1 era. As total calorie intake falls, protein is no longer just a fitness or sports‑nutrition play, but a core determinant of value per bite—supporting satiety, muscle retention, and metabolic health in a lower‑volume eating pattern. This is already driving reformulation, smaller formats, and new sourcing strategies across food and beverage, with ripple effects extending from grocery shelves back to agriculture. This fundamental shift in sourcing also necessitates a review of global supply chain structures, as a move from sugar-based to protein-based inputs can create significant opportunities to optimize transfer pricing, manage customs duties, and improve overall tax efficiency.
Structural forces further add to the complexity. High list prices and uneven insurance coverage continue to limit access, while policy actions and oral GLP-1 formats point toward broader eligibility over time, reinforcing volatility rather than clarity.8
In the satiety economy, winning is less about defending volume and more about reshaping portfolios to follow where demand is being reallocated.
Win the mix shift through portfolio reinvention and M&A
In a satiety economy, competitive advantage comes from meeting demand where it is moving. That puts portfolio reinvention at the center of the agenda. As calories become more precious, products need to deliver greater nutritional value per bite or sip, favoring protein-forward meals and snacks, portion-controlled premium indulgences, and functional formats such as hydration and fortified nutrition. Some of this evolution can happen organically through reformulation, portion strategy, and brand modernization, but many of the fastest-growing spaces require capabilities that incumbents do not already have.³
This is where mergers and acquisitions (M&A) play a central role. Acquisitions provide a faster path to capabilities, credibility, and relevance in categories shaped by GLP-1 behavior, while divesting calorie-dense or structurally misaligned brands can free capital and leadership focus to fund the shift.
The strongest players will take a dual approach, upgrading the core through cleaner labels, higher protein and fiber content, and right-sized formats, while using targeted acquisitions, partnerships, and selective exits to reshape portfolios faster than organic change alone would allow. Crucially, these expensive reformulation and R&D efforts can often qualify for significant R&D tax credits, allowing companies to effectively lower the cost of the very innovation required to compete.
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GLP-1s are not a passing disruption; they are redirecting demand. The companies that lead the next chapter of the consumer economy will be those that treat portfolio reinvention as a central, strategic tool. Executing this M&A-centric strategy requires an integrated approach from day one, where leaders evaluate deals through a single lens, recognizing that core workstreams cannot be managed in isolation. This means that due diligence and the valuation of the assets must be directly informed by a forward-looking supply chain and transfer pricing strategy. Likewise, managing cross-border duties and other financial implications must be a core part of the valuation model from the outset, not a separate exercise. In the satiety economy, the most successful M&A strategy will be the one that is most strategically, operationally, and financially efficient.
Footnotes:
1 “The Exponential Growth of Obesity Drugs,” Morgan Stanley, May 9, 2025.
2 KPMG LLP, Consumer Pulse Survey, April 2025.
3 KPMG LLP, “GLP-1 Trendsetter: From cravings to consciousness,” 2026.
4 Laura Reiley, “Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy,” Cornell Chronicle, December 19, 2025.
5 Sally Lyons Watt, “GLP-1 Medication Users to Represent 35% of U.S. Food and Beverage Sales by 2030, New Circana Research Reveals,” Circana, November 18, 2025.
6 “Consumers Using GLP-1s for Weight Loss Drive Lasting Changes in Retail,” Acosta Group, April 14, 2025; Numerator survey, July 2025.
7 Patricia J. Rodriguez, Vincent Zhang, Samuel Gratzl, et al, “Discontinuation and Reinitiation of Dual-Labeled GLP-1 Receptor Agonists Among US Adults With Overweight or Obesity,” JAMA Network Open, January 31, 2025; “Cleveland Clinic Research Finds Injectable Medications for Obesity Produce Smaller Weight Loss in A Real-World Setting, Compared to Randomized Clinical Trials,” Cleveland Clinic, June 10, 2025.
8 Alyssa Billingsley, “5 GLP-1 Trends to Expect in 2026: Expanded Uses, Oral Options, and More,” GoodRx, February 5, 2026; Kathryn Mayer, “GLP-1 Drugs Reduce Health Costs for Employers over Long Term,” Society for Human Resource Management, January 28, 2026; policy sources cited in the original paper.
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