Durable goods orders surged past April forecast

May 28, 2026

April durable goods orders surged 7.9%, chalking up the largest increase in nearly a year. The result outpaced expectations for a 4% rise. March orders were revised higher, to 1.3% from 0.8%. Excluding transportation, orders advanced 1.1%, the same as in March. 

Transportation orders jumped 21.5%, led by a 166% rise in civilian aircraft orders. Boeing booked orders of 136 new planes in April, a sharp increase from 33 in the prior month. China committed to purchasing 200 planes after a recent summit. 

Orders for motor vehicles and parts posted a smaller increase of 0.4%, tailing off from gains of 1.2% and 3.7% in March and February, respectively. Higher tax refunds provided a boost to motor vehicle sales earlier in the year. That windfall has dried up with higher energy prices.

Gains in durable goods orders were broad-based as nearly all industries booked increases. The one exception was computers and electronic product orders, which declined 0.7% after seven straight months of gains. Fabricated metals orders rose 3.5%, primary metals advanced 1.9%, electrical equipment increased 0.6% and machinery orders added 0.5%.  

If there was one blemish in the report, the decline in core orders could be a sign that sentiment among manufacturers is souring. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for capital spending, fell 1.1%, after rising 3.9% in March and 1.6% in February. Preemptive ordering played a part in the gains earlier in the year. Supply chain dislocations are widening as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed; that raises a headwind for future orders. 

Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft increased 0.4%. We project nonresidential fixed investment to rise at a 6% annualized pace in the second quarter. This is likely subject to downside risks given the stalemate in the gulf and our outlook for higher interest rates in the second half of the year.