Tariff Outlook
How to navigate supply chain uncertainty and complexity
Disruptions in the supply chain are the new normal
The delicate balance of global trade has faced unprecedented disruptions, with tariffs and trade policies casting ripples across supply chains worldwide.
With every country’s announcement, companies grapple with rising costs, shifting sourcing strategies, and the need for agility as they strive to mitigate risks and maintain supply chain continuity amid an ever-changing trade landscape.
The Administration has enacted additional new tariff measures, impacting key industries and reshaping US trade relations:
- 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico (previously 10%)
- Increased tariffs on all countries to have at least 10%, with higher rates on strategic goods and 60 specific countries
- Retaliatory measures from Canada (25% on US goods), with additional retaliatory tariffs expected from China as well as the EU
These changes significantly affect supply chains, cost structures, and trade policies across industries.
Navigating these complexities requires a proactive and connected approach to cost management risk mitigation and creative use of emerging technology to adapt and have a deep understanding of the dynamics shaping the global trade ecosystem. Supply chains that thrive will be proactive, adaptable, and data driven.
A smarter and balanced approach is key
Another day, another tariff announcement.
Initial cross-industry perspectives and insights
- Consumer goods and retail: Move fast to Vietnam, India, and Mexico for apparel, furniture, and electronics.
- Life sciences: Mexico, India, and Costa Rica emerge as top API and medical device suppliers.
- Energy and chemicals: North America still dominates, but costs increase.
- Industrial manufacturing: Mexico remains the most viable nearshoring option, with automation as a differentiator.
Key takeaways:
- North American trade remains viable despite tariff hikes, but companies must restructure cost models.
- China’s competitiveness further declines, forcing companies into full-scale supply chain shifts.
1
2
3
4
Tariffs can erode profits, and being unprepared for shifts can disrupt a company’s supply base and financial stability. The cost of not adapting to new supply chain realities can be significant and can be detrimental to business sustainability. Embracing these forward-thinking considerations will arm supply chain leaders with the tools to effectively navigate uncertainties while building proactive, competitive, and resilient supply chains that can drive business performance and maintain a competitive edge in the volatile world of supply chains.
Is your supply chain ready to navigate tariff uncertainty?
Our resources, who have extensive experience with diverse supply chains, can assist in assessing risk exposure, simulating various cost impact scenarios, and analyzing the potential impact of tariff and trade policy changes on your business. At KPMG, we leverage our advanced modeling and forecasting tools provide valuable insights and actionable strategies to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.
An intelligent performance platform
Our collaborative tax and supply chain approach to tariff modeling leverages the latest technology, including GenAI, while considering the data needed to navigate today’s global trade disruption. The collaboration of tax and supply chain allows for a granular look at impact to cost-to-serve and simulating scenarios.
Our intelligent performance platform is a comprehensive solution designed to optimize operational efficiency, visibility, and profitability. By integrating a cost-to-serve engine with an advanced tariff modeler, the platform enables businesses to accurately calculate and reduce service costs while dynamically adjusting to sourcing and pricing models. The solution leverages AI to proactively provide actionable insights, ensuring competitive positioning and enhanced decision-making. The intelligent performance platform empowers businesses to drive performance, increase savings, and deliver exceptional value to their customers in the ever-changing global supply chain.
How KPMG can help
We can help your supply chain simulate the current impact from tariffs and run new scenarios to help provide agility ahead of changes. We also generate results quickly—usually within 48 hours from receiving your global trade data.
Subscribe to Real Insights for Operations
The KPMG Real Insights for Operations Newsletter shares our supply chain research, analysis, and events—all designed to optimize supply chain operations and elevate supply chain management.
KPMG Tariff Modeler
Identify the impact of tariffs for today and build for tomorrow.
Explore more
Insight
Six supply chain trends to watch in 2025
From cost management to risk mitigation, Scope 3 to new technology, 2025 is expected to present plenty for supply chain leaders to manage.
Insight
Navigate supply chain disruptions with integrated AI planning
Integrated AI planning equips your supply chain with visibility, transparency, and more.
Insight
Actionable insights for your supply chain challenges
Enhance, streamline, and safeguard your end-to-end supply chain operations with our strategic insights.
Meet our team
