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Autumn industrial production mixed

Autos suffered from tax credit expiration. 

December 23, 2025

The November and October industrial production data were released simultaneously due to the federal government shutdown. Industrial production rose 0.2% in November after declining 0.1% in October. In November, industrial output grew 2.5% from a year ago, the best reading since September 2022, and an improvement from 0.9% growth at the start of this year.

November industrial activity received a lift from mining output, which rebounded 1.7% after declines the prior two months, down 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Utility output fell 0.4% with electric and gas utility declining 0.4% each. Manufacturing output was flat.

Within manufacturing output, the production of motor vehicles and parts fell 1%, which marked the third consecutive month of declines. The expiration of federal tax credits for electric vehicles at the end of September sapped vehicle demand, resulting in production cutbacks in recent months.

Output of wood products declined 1%; furniture production fell 2% due to ongoing weakness in the residential housing sector. Primary metals and fabricated metal products fell 0.3% each. Machinery output declined 0.1%.

Bucking the trend in November, business equipment output increased 0.3%. Computer and electronic products output rose 0.8% while electrical equipment output increased 0.8% due to ongoing AI-related investments.

Consumer goods output rose 0.3%, the first increase in four months, due largely from higher output of nondurable items such as food and clothing. Nondurable consumer goods output increased 0.5% in November. The largest gains were seen in clothing output, up 2.2%, and foods and tobacco, up 1.3%. 

Ongoing gains in infrastructure investments in AI should support investment and production as we move into 2026.

photo of Ken Kim

Ken Kim

KPMG Senior Economist

Bottom Line:

Over the course of 2025, industrial activity has managed to grow despite the uncertainty of tariffs. Manufacturing output rose 2% from a year ago in November, considerably better than the 0.1% drop in January. The October durable goods orders report, released today, suggests that investment may be picking up after a slowdown during the summer. Recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the resumption of 100% bonus depreciation, which offsets the cost of tariffs on equipment purchases, tax cuts for households and ongoing gains in infrastructure investments in AI should support investment and production as we move into 2026.

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Kenneth Kim
Senior Economist, KPMG Economics, KPMG US

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