Fewer job openings across states

September 17, 2025

Total job openings in the United States edged lower to 7.2 million at the end of July, down from 7.4 million the month before. However, on a three-month moving average basis, openings have remained steady for over a year.

Job openings were steady in most states, month over month. New York (-104,000) and Florida (-76,000) posted the largest declines; California (+80,000) posted the largest increase.

Real-time data from Indeed show that advertised job postings recovered in July into mid-August; yet openings have fallen again from late August through early September. The five most populous states: California, Texas, Florida, New York and Pennsylvania all posted declines in openings through early September.

That reflects slowing labor demand. It aligns with lower payroll growth. That in turn reflects a smaller labor supply due to changes in immigration policy and a surge in retirements.

The new breakeven number of job gains, the number of jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate steady, is significantly lower than it was last year. It may fall further in the months ahead.

Job postings have been flat since mid-July in Washington, DC, Maryland and Virginia. They dropped because of federal government layoffs.

The ratio of job openings to applicants, watched closely by the Federal Reserve, came in flat at 1.0, after rounding. Before rounding, it was 0.99, the first time the number of unemployed job seekers outnumbered job openings since April 2021.

The ratio increased month over month in 21 states. That points to increasing labor market strain in most states and Washington, DC.

We are seeing little churn in the labor market. That has been the case for over a year. Both hiring and layoffs were stable in July in most states. For example, both hiring and layoffs were flat in Texas. In California, hiring rose by 0.1 percentage point while layoffs fell by 0.2 percentage point.

Quits also changed little in most states. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta show that people who stayed in their jobs earned higher wage gains than those who changed jobs. That reflects the shift in the labor market from the heights of 2022. It suggests wages will cool further; that should help with inflation.

At the national level, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.25% in July from 4.12% in June. At the state level, month over month, 47 states showed no statistically significant change in their unemployment rates. California's rate rose to 5.5% in July from 5.4% in June; the rates fell in both Alabama (to 3.0% from 3.2%) and Colorado (to 4.5% from 4.7%).