Fewer job openings so far for 2025

Unemployment and inflation are expected to rise. 

April 16, 2025

Total job openings in the United States cooled to 7.6 million at the end of February, down from 7.8 million the month before. The number of job openings is shrinking compared to a year earlier; on a three-month moving average basis, openings have remained steady since June 2024.

Job openings edged lower in several large states in different regions month-over-month. Leading the declines were Arizona (-71,000), New York (-33,000), Pennsylvania (-18,000) and Florida (-13,000). New Jersey actually posted a rise in job openings of 43,000.

Real-time data from Indeed show that job postings have been on the decline so far in 2025, falling three percentage points in the first quarter. Similar to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, postings declined in large states in different regions. They are trending lower in Texas, Georgia and Florida, states that had higher labor demand in recent months. Openings are also declining in Massachusetts, New York and California; postings in these large states have been trending below the pre-pandemic baseline for months.

Labor demand has tanked in Washington, DC, Maryland and Virginia due to federal government layoffs and the spillover effects on other employers who receive federal funds. As private sector hiring has remained sluggish, this will likely lead to an increase in unemployment.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers, a measure of balance in the labor market tracked closely by Federal Reserve officials, remained flat at 1.1 for the fifth straight month. The ratio decreased month-over-month in 29 states and Washington, DC, reflecting both the drop in job openings and an increase in the unemployed.

Both hiring and layoffs were flat in nearly all states at the end of February. Since mid-2024, low hiring has been offset by few layoffs. Looking ahead, the concern is that businesses will hire even less and may even start to lay off workers, due to the policy-driven uncertainty. In this environment, it will be difficult for laid off workers to find a new job.

The number of quits changed little and remained low in most states. ADP data show that the wage premium for switching jobs continues to fall. Job changers gained a 6.5% raise in March; that is down from 7.8% a year ago. Along with the low quits rates, this suggests that wage growth, which had been a concern for the Federal Reserve, will continue to moderate this year.

At the national level, the unemployment rate barely ticked up to 4.14% in February from 4.01% in January. Month-over-month at the state level, 49 states showed no statistically significant change in the unemployment rate. Only Florida posted a change: to 3.6% in February from 3.5% in January.

Barring a sharp downturn, the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines until the fourth quarter when we forecast two quarter-point rate cuts.

photo of Matthew Nestler, PhD

Matthew Nestler, PhD

KPMG Senior Economist

Bottom Line

The state-level JOLTS data for the end of February showed that the labor market was stable leading up to the policy-driven uncertainty. In the months ahead, we should see a clearer picture of the degree to which tariffs, immigration policy and uncertainty have affected the labor market. Our base case now has 60% recession odds. The US may already be in a recession; official government data are lagged. With both inflation and unemployment expected to rise, the Fed is in a hard place. Barring a sharp downturn before then, the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines until the fourth quarter when we forecast two quarter-point rate cuts. 

Explore more

Subscribe to insights from KPMG Economics

KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.

Meet our team

Image of Matthew Nestler, PhD
Matthew Nestler, PhD
Senior Economist, KPMG Economics, KPMG US

Thank you

Thank you for subscribing. You should receive a confirmation e-mail soon.

Subscribe to insights from KPMG Economics

Now more than ever, companies are using data to make informed decisions about the future of their business. KPMG Economics is continuously monitoring and analyzing economic and geopolitical data so we can provide business leaders with reliable and timely insight and analysis.

To receive our Economic Updates and other relevant content published by the KPMG Economics as soon as it is released, please provide the following details:

By submitting, you agree that KPMG LLP may process any personal information you provide pursuant to KPMG LLP's . Privacy Statement

An error occurred. Please contact customer support.

Thank you!

Thank you for contacting KPMG. We will respond to you as soon as possible.

Contact KPMG

Use this form to submit general inquiries to KPMG. We will respond to you as soon as possible.

By submitting, you agree that KPMG LLP may process any personal information you provide pursuant to KPMG LLP's . Privacy Statement

An error occurred. Please contact customer support.

Job seekers

Visit our careers section or search our jobs database.

Submit RFP

Use the RFP submission form to detail the services KPMG can help assist you with.

Office locations

International hotline

You can confidentially report concerns to the KPMG International hotline

Press contacts

Do you need to speak with our Press Office? Here's how to get in touch.

Headline