Job openings fall to lowest in four years

September 30, 2025

The number of job openings stayed flat in August. There were 7.2 million jobs available at the end of the month, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS); that is the same as last month.

The monthly data are noisy. On a three-month moving average basis, job openings have fallen to 7.2 million from a range of 7.4 to 7.8 million since June last year. That is the lowest level since February 2021; it shows slowing labor demand.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers, a measure of balance in the labor market tracked by Federal Reserve officials, came in flat at 1.0 after rounding, again the same as July. Before rounding, it dropped to 0.979 from 0.996. That means there are more unemployed job seekers than job openings. The last time that happened was April 2021.

Real-time data from Indeed Hiring Lab show that advertised job postings flattened in August and have ticked down so far in September. Postings for senior positions have increased compared to last year; those for junior positions have declined. That illustrates the challenging labor market for new labor market entrants.

Labor demand is falling while labor supply is declining due to curbs on immigration and a rise in retirements. That has kept the unemployment rate low; all else equal, that means slower economic growth.

Job openings fell by 84,000 among small businesses (firms with 1-49 employees). On a three-month moving average basis, they have lost ground since the end of last year but have flattened out since March. Small businesses have been resilient so far in the face of policy shifts and uncertainty. Risks remain to the downside.

The federal government posted the lowest number of job openings (77,000) since February 2018. Government job openings have fallen off a cliff since the beginning of this year, despite new hiring plans for Customs and Border Protection.

The construction sector remains tight. Openings fell by 115,000. The number of unfilled jobs is now at the lowest since March 2017. The number of new hires and quits increased at the same time layoffs fell.

Employers are likely hoarding labor due to supply-side shortages from the shift in immigration policy. The outlook is negative for the housing sector. Home builder sentiment has cratered; rising input costs due to tariffs and unaffordability combine to lower the outlook.

The overall hiring rate ticked down to 3.2% from 3.3%. On a three-month moving average basis, it was flat at 3.3% for the second straight month. A 3.3% hiring rate overlapped with an unemployment rate of around 7-8% in the early 2010s.

A low number of hires are continuing to be offset by a low count for firings. The layoff rate was flat at 1.1% for the third straight month. The actual number of layoffs ticked up on a three-month moving average basis. If that number drifts higher, that will trigger an increase in unemployment or a decline in labor force participation. The low hiring environment provides little margin for error.

The general frost in the labor market shows up in the three sectors that have powered job gains for the last two years. In healthcare and social assistance, leisure and hospitality and state and local government, job openings rose slightly while hiring was flat or slipped; layoffs declined.

The quits rate ticked down to 1.9% from 2%. It remained flat at 2% on a three-month moving average basis. The Labor Leverage Ratio, a proxy for worker bargaining power, was little changed as both quits and layoffs fell. The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence ticked down in September. Respondents' concerns about their present situation drove the decline.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, job switchers are once again earning more than those who stay in their jobs. That reverses the opposite trend from the past several months but is more in line with the post-pandemic pattern and provides some optimism for workers.