CFOs brace for recession and consider AI for forecasting

KPMG LLP (KPMG) convened a cross-industry group of chief financial officers (CFOs) to talk about the increased likelihood of a recession given market volatility and financial market stress, as well as the possibility of using artificial intelligence (AI) for forecasting. 

Key takeaways

• The Fed is likely to enact one more interest rate hike in 2023.
• The probability of recession by the middle of the year is around 60 percent, according to one Fed model. However, economists expect it to be mild to moderate in depth and duration.
• Consumer savings amassed during the early days of the pandemic have decreased from $2.2 trillion to $1.1 trillion, and households will probably shift their focus from spending to savings due to increased anxiety around a possible recession.
• CFOs continue to evaluate their financial and vendor relationships to ensure they are resilient through this economic cycle.
• CFOs are both excited and cautious about the use of AI for forecasting, as well as other applications as varied as supply chain management, insurance claim reviews, and corporate audits.