Aircraft orders lift durable goods

October 27, 2026

Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in September after a revised 0.1% increase in August, led by aircraft bookings. Transportation orders jumped 4.6%, accounting for roughly four-fifths of the overall dollar gain. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%. Core capital goods orders, which exclude defense and aircraft, also increased 0.5%, while core shipments climbed 1.2%. Total orders were up 9.9% from a year earlier.

Boeing booked 165 gross aircraft orders, up from 15 in August. Deliveries rose to 57 from 51. Bookings strengthen the future production pipeline, but delivery can be years away and orders can be canceled. Motor vehicles and parts orders edged up 0.3% after an August decline. Total orders excluding defense increased 2.2%.

Equipment orders were mixed. Computers and electronic products rose 0.8% in September and 16.6% from a year earlier. Machinery and metals gained. These industries supply the data center buildout. 

Electrical equipment orders fell 0.3%, although they remained 4.9% above their year-earlier level. Orders and shipments are not adjusted for inflation, so their gains can reflect higher prices as well as greater demand. 

Core capital goods orders gained 13.5% from a year earlier. That suggests resilient equipment demand. Data centers and mining activity are less sensitive to escalating prices and rising interest rates than other investment. There is some evidence that the data center boom is crowding out other forms of investment, as it is bidding up costs. 

Core shipments provide a more immediate signal for the GDP calculation. The September increase points to firmer investment in the third quarter. We saw double-digit gains for equipment spending in the first and second quarters. Data center construction is buoying the total; we should see another acceleration in the third quarter.

Factory output rebounded modestly. Manufacturing rose 0.3% in September after a revised 0.2% decline in August, compared with a 0.7% increase in total industrial production. Utilities jumped 3.5%, while mining rose 0.2%. The jump in utilities is related to the nearly insatiable demand for electricity from data centers. Mining is getting a lift from higher energy prices, although producers are more disciplined than we saw during the shale boom. 

S&P Global’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index edged up to 56.0 in October, signaling continued expansion. That supports the manufacturing outlook but is not a direct measure of capital spending. Prices are running red hot in those indices.