Future Proofing Freight: Insights and Strategies for Navigating Tariff and Supply Chain Disruption

Learn how current US tariff policy is affecting international shipping interests and the supply chain, and how your organization can respond, immediately and in the long-term, to mitigate risk and avoid disruption.

Significant supply chain disruptions are becoming more frequent. While geopolitical conflict and economic uncertainty in recent years created a baseline of uncertainty, the evolution of US tariff policy over the first half of 2025 and into the summer is now reverberating throughout the world. Organizations are now in need of a greater understanding of this new normal, not just in the short term, but over the next few years. A path forward will require new tools and a smarter approach to data analysis.

In this webcast, panelists discussed the following topics:

The current state of the supply chain in the light of emerging US tariff policy.
How to best navigate these ongoing shifts in tariff and trade policies.
The current factors supply chain leaders must face in order to adapt.
Why leveraging AI for smarter, faster decisions is a useful way to gain control and reduce risk.

International trade policy is undergoing a seismic shift not seen in many years. The result: Tariffs remain the highest they’ve ever been around the world in decades.

According to Uber Freight, US consumers currently face an average tariff rate of 19.7%, the highest since 1933. This is expected to increase consumer prices by 1.8%, translating to an average household income loss of $2,300. Textiles and clothing sectors represent those the most affected by this shift, but manufacturing is already showing signs of long-term disruption.

So how will this affect international shipping? As of July, Uber Freight reports that:

Estimated 1% tariff rate increase will result in a decrease in truckload demand by 0.15% to 0.25%.
Therefore, the current average tariff rate puts about 3.5% of truckload demand at risk.

Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key economic indicator that reflects the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors in the United States, fell below the 50.0 expansion threshold since the tariff announcements from Washington in the spring.

While the production index surpassed 50.0 for the first time since March, both new orders and backlogs contracted, pointing to softening demand. Also of concern are the prices and employment indices, which indicated ongoing inflation and layoffs.

Imports in Trouble

Container imports saw a 1.8% increase in June, a slight recovery from May’s drop of 9.7%. Despite the June increase, import volumes remain 3.5% lower year-over-year. Imports from China were the direst, down 28.3% year-over-year.

However, imports from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand all increased, 7.7%, 7.3%, and 8.6% respectively, reports Uber Freight.

Truckload spot rates fell year-over-year for the first time since May 2024.

What’s Next

Two kinds of tariffs are currently under review:

Country-Based Tariffs. The current focus is primarily on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China.

Industry-Based Tariffs. These tariffs target select industries. In effect today are aluminum (50% tariff), steel (50%), automotive (25%), and car parts (25%). Most threatened in the future: pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, lumber, critical minerals, trucks, commercial aircraft, drones, and polysilicon.

Five Realities Reshaping Logistics

Global logistics has never been more complex or more critical. Besides the tariff disruptions, geopolitical shocks, supply chain disruptions, and rising customer expectations add to the demand for a smarter, faster, and more resilient approach. In light of that, there are five realities supply chain leaders must be aware of today in order to move forward:

Volatility is the new normal.
Complexity requires smarter systems for faster responses.
AI is no longer optional and must be embedded into operations.
Freight technology is evolving into growth infrastructure.
Integration across the stack is key.

How the Supply Chain Views AI

Yet, despite the realities described above, supply chain leaders are still adapting to the new reality that AI provides their industry. According to the Uber Freight 2025 State of AI Survey:

AI is still early in this industry as only 12% say they are familiar with AI freight tools.
Yet most recognize AI will drive savings as 75% of respondents cite “cost reduction” as the top driver of AI.

For 39% of respondents, AI scenario planning is the most exciting prospect of the new technology.

At this stage, humans remain an important part of the workforce, as only 21% see AI as primarily tasked with automating workflows.

The KPMG Tariff Modeler is a powerful tool designed to help businesses navigate the complexities of tariffs and trade disruptions, providing real-time insights via an intuitive and client accessible portal. This gives users full transparency and insight into the supply chain and helps them gain control over their operation by providing tariff impact analysis and supporting the development and implementation of their tariff strategy.

Key features include:

Comprehensive tariff analysis: Now, users can access detailed insights into current and potential tariffs affecting products and markets throughout the world and apply them to their business for navigating a path forward.

Real-time updates and regulatory tracking. Users received immediate updates on new changes to tariffs and regulations, ensuring compliance and competitiveness.

Customizable reports. Users can also generate tailored reports to help them make informed decisions based on the specifics of their business and industry.

Scenario planning. They can also enable proactive scenario planning to simulate potential tariff impacts and visualize how their supply chain is affected.

Service

The new imperative: Supply chain transformation

At a time of extreme disruption, help future-proof your supply chain with KPMG

How KPMG Supply Chain Services can help

KPMG offers a technology-enabled planning transformation journey supported by a proven six-layer operating model that ensures accurate segmentation analysis and includes a demand plan and data assessment. We offer an AI portfolio, a set of algorithms for supply chains, from augmenting your workforce and optimizing costs to making inventory management more efficient and assisting regulatory compliance. Let KPMG guide, accelerate, and de-risk your supply chain with purpose-built assets and accelerators designed exclusively for supply chain operations.