Perspectives on the quarter’s market trends
Taking a company public can boost its profile and provide much-needed capital resources. But ensuring readiness for the capital markets requires a keen understanding of the current initial public offering (IPO) market—significant exits; sectors on the rise; trends in deal prices, sizes, returns; and more.
IPO Insights delivers the latest information and analysis on quarterly IPO activity and performance. Prepared by professionals from the KPMG Capital Markets Readiness and KPMG Private Enterprise practices, this quarterly report is designed to help private market business leaders prepare their companies to tap into the capital markets.
The third quarter brought some positive data to IPO investors. The Fed dropped interest rates by 50 basis points. IPO volume remained steady quarter-over-quarter. Private equity exits were up nearly 20 percent. The quarter even brought the largest deal of the year (Lineage Inc., a warehousing real estate investment trust, which raised more than $4.4 billion).
In reality, however, the quarter was more a rush for the exits than a race to the bell. With global volatility up and growing uncertainty about the outcome of the US election in November, many were likely looking to get their listings out before the markets slammed shut for the election and the traditional year-end slowdown began.
Most listings in the quarter were small to mid-sized. Besides Lineage Inc., just one listing raised more than $500 million (Concentra Group Holdings, a life sciences company). Total proceeds came in at just $7.9 billion, a decline of more than 10 percent over 2Q24. Average returns were -6.5 percent at the end of the quarter. Cancellations ticked up slightly.
While there is some precedence for increased activity immediately following a presidential election, we believe that most private company leaders are now preparing for a 2025 debut.
No. of IPOs and gross proceeds (US$B)
The below data includes 3 direct listings each closed in 3Q23, 4Q23 and 3Q24 respectively
While there was some hope that IPO markets would open up ahead of the elections, global volatility has dampened investor appetite and forced many IPO-ready companies to postpone their plans to 2025.
Conor Moore
Global Head, KPMG Private Enterprise
Healthcare and life sciences stocks dominated the new listings for the quarter, representing 14 of the 44 IPOs. Concentra Group Holdings, a provider of occupational health services, raised $529 million and Bicara Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, raised $315 million. And half of the biggest deals (by value) in the quarter were healthcare and life sciences offers. Market appetite was uneven, however, leaving the group down 9.4 percent by the end of the quarter.
The best returns of the quarter were chalked up by small to medium manufacturers. The IM sector brought just nine listings to market (their lowest volume of 2024) that, combined, raised less than $100 million. But the group delivered a 7.6 return on the quarter, led by Primega Group Holdings Limited (a Hong-Kong based construction services company), which delivered a 180 percent return.
Other big raises included OneStream, an enterprise platform provider, which raised $490 million and enjoyed a 30 percent return on the quarter, and BKC Corporation, a US shale gas producer, which raised $270 million.
Some privately held companies see the next 90 days as an opportunity to really ensure they are prepared to take their company public early in 2025. Others will see it as a catalyst to re-examine all of their exit options.
Shari Mager
Partner and U.S. National Leader, Capital Markets Readiness, KPMG LLP
IPO performance in 3Q24 by sectors
Private Equity (PE) exit volume and values both picked up in the quarter, with volume up nearly 20 percent and values up more than 10 percent. However, both the volume and value share of corporate acquisitions declined in the current quarter on the back of a slight revival in the IPO market and heightened PE deal activity, leading to an uptick in sponsor acquisitions.
Venture Capital (VC) activity remained sluggish, however, with volume and values down year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. One particular area of growth in VC exit activity has been buyout exits, which are expected to continue to grow as a proportion of exit values as PE firms pick up assets as part of their add-on strategies to strengthen platform companies for future economic growth.
PE exit value by type (US$B) (Percentage share)
Percentage share of each type of PE exit in the total dollar value of exits
US VC exit value by type (US$B) (Percentage share)
Percentage share of each type of VC exit in the total dollar value of exits
In September, the Fed cut the federal fund rate by 50 basis points and signaled that further cuts were likely (the Fed Dot Plot suggests another 50 basis points will be cut before the end of 2024). Yet this cycle has been somewhat peculiar: even with historically high rates, markets have enjoyed robust growth (the S&P 500 gained 25 percent in 2023, and the Russell 2000 gained 16 percent).
High interest rates have had a long-term impact on issuances, however. Total IPO volume is still just around a quarter of what it was in the highs of 2021. In different times, September’s rate cut would have brought a flurry of IPOs to the market. As it was, election uncertainty and geopolitical tensions kept the door shut.
The signs all align for a great start to 2025, therefore. Assuming no new or worsening geopolitical issues test the fabric of global markets, the combination of continued rate cuts and a robust pipeline of IPO-ready companies should make for an active first quarter of 2025.
Facing high levels of market uncertainty and recognizing that markets are now likely shut for the next few months, a growing number of private companies are pursuing dual-track strategies where they prepare for both an IPO and a sale at the same time.
For those IPO-ready companies waiting for the markets to open, a dual-track approach helps preserve optionality, thereby increasing flexibility and reducing the risk of continued market weakness. For those exploring a sale option, preparing for an IPO can help boost valuations by adding a sense of competition to the mix.
Expect to see more dual-track approaches over the next few months.
Despite high inflation and interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty surrounding the US presidential elections, IPO markets did improve over the first three quarters of 2024, fostering some optimism for the remainder of the year.
However, most eyes are now firmly set on early 2025. With a strong pipeline of IPO candidates, the promise of ongoing rate cuts and greater clarity on US policy going forward, most observers expect to see a significant rebound in IPO markets starting in the first quarter of next year.
Understanding the key trends and investor expectations is critical to preparing for an IPO. Investment narratives matter. They cut through the deluge of data and analysis, and help companies sift real windows of opportunity from market noise. And the most compelling deal stories come from insights about a company’s unique mix of valuation drivers. Sector. Markets. Customers. Portfolio mix. Capital structure.
At KPMG, our professionals offer a range of services specifically designed to help privately owned companies—venture-backed or otherwise—navigate each stage of the IPO journey. We help entrepreneurial ventures simplify the complex challenges of going public, while helping ensure they meet their diverse regulatory, compliance, and reporting requirements.
Working with KPMG, you gain access to trusted advisers who share your entrepreneurial mindset. And we can help you understand and improve the factors that drive maximum deal value for your offering.
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