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Waiting for Recession: M&A Trends in C&R

C&R firms have cash, but the Fed’s rate hikes to curb inflation have raised the chances of a recession and dampened M&A deal appetite.

With a recession looming, investors may be holding off making deals until 2023 when valuations are likely to be lower as stock prices continue to fall and future Fed interest rate policy is clearer. With many retailers acknowledging they have too much unsold inventory, and what they have is no longer top of mind for consumers, the holiday selling season could have a critical impact on company finances and determine which firms become viable M&A targets.

Some key takeaways:

• Waiting for clarity: Both strategic and private equity investors have cash to make acquisitions, but they appear to be waiting for clarity on when the recession will start

• Holiday sales may be key: With many stores overstocked with excess inventory, the holiday selling season will be important in knowing which companies may be takeover targets.

• Private equity on the sidelines: PE acquisitions dropped substantially in Q3’22, possibly because the cost of leveraged buyouts increased, with investors waiting for lower valuations. But they must invest their funds within a short time period.

For the latest market trends and KPMG deal professionals’ view of what may lie ahead, download our full Q3’22.

Dive into our thinking:

Waiting for Recession: M&A Trends in C&R

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client story

A winning rebound for a leading fitness company

How KPMG helped a fitness leader regain its financial strength

This is not our first time seeing a very good start-up with a very good product hit a roadblock. They needed a more mature organizational structure. Our goal is to bring in as much experience as needed, and that’s the real strength of KPMG—we have much better depth in terms of skill sets than many companies do. Here, we were able to bring in three different elements of KPMG to help this company.

Michael Musso

Managing Director, Deal Advisory & Strategy

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