Job openings decline

November 20, 2024

Total job openings in the United States declined to 7.4 million at the end of September; there were 1.3 million fewer openings in September compared to the start of the year.

Job openings changed little on a monthly basis in most states. Arkansas (+23,000), North Carolina (+23,000) and Michigan (+19,000) posted the largest gains. The largest declines occurred in Texas (-134,000), Georgia (-74,000) and California (-60,000).

Real-time data from Indeed show that job postings in several large states have trended up in November. Gains in this month are reversing October losses in Georgia, Texas, Pennsylvania and California. That bodes well for a rebound in job openings.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers, a measure of balance in the labor market tracked closely by Federal Reserve officials, was nearly flat at 1.1 in September. The ratio declined in 34 states and the District of Columbia month-over-month. In many states, a decline in job openings was responsible. The Fed is hoping to avoid higher unemployment as the main factor.

Hiring and layoffs changed little month-over-month in most states. In Minnesota, the hiring rate rose to 3.5% in September from 2.9% in August; the layoffs rate rose to 1.0% from 0.7% during the same period. Hiring continues to be sluggish but layoffs remain low by historical standards. This is a tenuous balance in the economy. Risks remain to the upside that an abrupt change in one of these indicators could signal a weakening labor market.

Quits remained little changed in all but three states. The quits rate rose in September in Louisiana (+0.7 percentage point) and Maryland (+0.6 point); it fell in Illinois (-0.8 point).

Data from ADP show that the wage premium for switching jobs dropped to 6.2% in October. Back in March, it was 8.3%. Fewer workers are voluntarily quitting their jobs as the financial reward for changing jobs declines.

At the national level, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.14% in October from 4.05% the month before. Between September 2023 to September 2024, joblessness increased in 22 states and Washington, DC; it decreased in six states. Connecticut (-0.8 percentage point) and Arizona (-0.7 point) showed the largest declines; the largest increases occurred in South Carolina (1.5 points) and Rhode Island (1.4 points).