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Biopharma deal trends outlook for 2023

Near-term headwinds, with possible run on small biotechs on the horizon

The overall biopharmaceutical deal market began to see a significant slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2022, and from a deal volume standpoint this has carried through into the first quarter of 2023. KPMG has a number of interesting predictions for the biopharma deal space for the remainder of 2023. These include:

  • Mega-mergers will remain out of favor.
  • We believe 2023 will also see the rise of more divestitures and out-licensing deals from large biopharmaceutical companies.
  • The volume of small to mid-size full company acquisitions will continue to outpace prior years, and we predict that this will be driven by a run on small biotechs in late 2023 and early 2024.
  • The more assertive FTC policies and actions will continue to loom over the industry.
  • And the implications of the Inflation Reduction Act will lead to reduced valuations for certain small-molecule focused biotech companies because of the 9-year negotiation criteria for high-spend therapies in Medicare Part D and B.

Dive into our thinking:

Biopharma deal trends outlook for 2023

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Meet our team

Image of Jeff Stoll
Jeff Stoll
Principal, National Strategy Life Sciences Leader, KPMG US
Image of Andrew Stephenson
Andrew Stephenson
Partner, Advisory, Financial Due Diligence, KPMG US

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