The 5G marathon

5G has been touted as a game changer and a catalyst for the fourth industrial revolution; one study estimates 5G’s contribution to global GDP at $508bn by 2030 whilst another study predicts that 5G will create $13.2tn in global economic value by 2025. Policy makers around the world have recognised the huge potential from 5G and have made concerted efforts to support the deployment and take up of 5G. In 2019, we took a look at the 5G policies being put in place by regions which were leading the 5G race at the time, these being:

• South Korea
• US
• Japan
• China
• Singapore

• France
• Germany
• Portugal
• Spain
• UK

So, four years on, who is winning the race? It depends on how you look at it. Progress can be measured in various ways, for example:

• In terms of base stations per capita, South Korea leads the pack with 419 5G base stations per 100,000 inhabitants, followed by China with 206 per 100,000 inhabitants. The US lags behind with 77 5G base stations per 100,000 inhabitants.
• However, the US has the greatest 5G availability¹, with availability at 54%. 5G availability in South Korea and China stands at 35% and 27% respectively and is significantly lower in the European countries in the above list, which sit between 17-19%.
• 5G adoption across East Asian countries generally outpaces Western countries; South Korea’s 5G connections as a percentage of all connections stands at 47.8%, followed by China and Japan at 41.1% and 32.9% respectively. By comparison, 5G adoption is at 28.8% in the UK and even lower at 12.6% in France.
• South Korea ranks first in terms of median 5G speeds with 419.56 Mbps median download speed. The only other countries from our initial list in the top ten are Singapore (ranked seventh with 119.55 Mbps) and France (ranked tenth with 106.61 Mbps).

Whilst progress has been made, it hasn’t been easy for all countries and initial targets have not always been met. For instance, whilst South Korea performs relatively well compared to other countries across various metrics, it has struggled to meet national targets. In 2023, the South Korean ICT (Information and Communication Technology) ministry cancelled the 5G spectrum licenses for the high band 28 GHz band allocated to its mobile network operators (‘MNOs’) due to their failure to meet investment and rollout targets. Research also indicates that 5G rollouts across the EU were delayed due to a number of reasons such as weak demand from MNOs for spectrum and uncertainty over security issues. Elsewhere, in the US, MNOs have faced setbacks in some of their 5G rollouts due to concerns that the spectrum used for 5G could interfere with aircraft.

However, the big question is whether 5G will be able to deliver the promised benefits of huge contributions to global GDP. This is not clear yet. The true benefits of 5G are likely to be greatest when employed for new use cases by enterprises whereas 5G deployment has largely concentrated on consumer mobile use so far. Crucially, new business use cases will be heavily dependent on the deployment of standalone 5G networks which will be driven by factors such as spectrum availability and the ability to demonstrate sufficient demand to drive investment. As such, policy makers around the world are putting in place policies aimed at testing and demonstrating new 5G use cases with the aim to replicate and scale them, and ultimately, creating the demand for 5G.

Whilst the race for 5G supremacy begun several years ago, it is clear that it is still ongoing; it is a marathon with some way to go.