KPMG x BRC Retail Sales Monitor

Linda Ellett, UK Head of Consumer, Retail & Leisure at KPMG, said:

“September saw modest, but welcome, sales growth for retailers.  Children’s clothing, footwear and accessories saw a boost from the start of the school year, with household budgets feeling slightly less constrained for some parents compared to last year. 

Similarly, the return to work after summer holidays also led to an upturn in adult clothing and footwear sales.  With record rainfall levels in some counties, the cold and wet weather in September sped up purchases of extra layers and wet weather gear.

With energy prices having again risen, all eyes now turn to the Budget and what impact that will have on household discretionary spending in the final quarter of the year.”

Read September's report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“Despite summer finally making an appearance, and a slight uptick in consumer confidence, shoppers did not catch-up their spending during August, with total sales growth of only 1% reflecting the challenging retail environment that is likely to dominate for the rest of this year.

There were some bright sales spots emerging in August, with sport and travel equipment enjoying a welcome boost during this key summer holiday period, and sales of clothing also saw a second month of growth on the high street. Food and drink sales were positive on the high street, whilst online retailers saw demand for DIY and gardening items with growth at nearly 11%. Fashion retailers will be hoping sales growth continues as they look to dispose of excess summer stock as we head into the key autumn season.

Consumer sentiment is gradually starting to improve, but there still remains some nervousness around potential tax rises and the cost of putting the heating back on when the cooler weather arrives. The fragile nature of consumer confidence means shoppers will continue to be driven by price and value, moving from brand to brand to find the best price benefit and we are likely to see retailers using promotional activity to seek to win at this.

As green shoots of growth start to appear, those retailers looking to seize on slowly returning consumer confidence will need to demonstrate best value for money, as well as tap in to the “experience” factor as consumers focus their discretionary spend on having fun or experiences over owning more ‘stuff’. Winning retailers will need clear differentiation, targeting specific consumer needs, and executing with consistency and clarity.”

Read August's report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“While summer staples, such as health, beauty, and gardening products have helped to drive retail sales growth both online and in-store in July, the upturn is likely much less than retailers were hoping for at this key time of the year. A busy summer of televised sport has played a beneficial role in increasing TV, mobile and tablet sales over the last two months, but there’s little evidence of other big ticket purchases taking place. 

Spending levels continue to be governed by whether households have been able to absorb the likes of mortgage and rent increases, or had to limit their spend elsewhere as a consequence. Also, while some sectors are seeing wage growth, others are cutting posts - leaving some consumers mindful that they may need to fall back on savings if they find themselves out of work. 

ONS data for the first quarter of 2024 shows a growing average percentage of household income being put into savings. But it's looking increasingly likely that the retail sector will see a gradual drip effect from those choosing to spend some, rather than the spending taps suddenly being turned on full.” 

Read July's report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“Summer may finally have arrived, but it did little to persuade consumers to hit the shops, with retail sales flatlining at 0.2% in June.

Items for the home topped the best selling categories, with homewares, cooking accessories and furniture all seeing positive growth in June as consumers made the most of the sunshine to enjoy time at home.  Computing sales also continued to do well, achieving double digit growth both online and on the high street. Despite the warmer weather and the football providing opportunities for people to gather at home, food and drink sales were disappointing in June, recording just 1.16% growth, and clothing and footwear also saw a disappointing performance, with negative growth both on the high street and online.

Despite pressure on household finances easing, with petrol and energy costs and shop price inflation all continuing to fall, consumers remain incredibly reluctant to take the brakes off their spending. The stimulus of good weather and Euro 24, which was hoped would drive consumer spending, has so far failed to materialise and financial concerns remain with many households.  

Retailers, who are running to stand still at the moment, having exhausted all of the levers they have at their disposal to cut costs and drive sales via promotions, will be looking to the new Government to boost the economy and confidence.  The overall economic conditions may slowly be improving, but the health of the sector remains fragile, and action is needed now to help support this vital economic contributor – particularly around neglected areas such as business rate reform.”

Read June's report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“Whilst May’s figures show barely positive increases in retail sales, with less than one percent growth year-on-year, the impact of falling CPI - which means volumes are not declining as quickly, may help to soften the blow for hard-working retailers.

With the early bank holiday and some better weather, there was a big step up in the number of categories that saw positive high street sales growth which was close to 3-in-4. Health, personal care, beauty and computing continued to sell well, whilst women’s and children’s clothing also saw small increases in sales. After nearly three years, things may have turned a corner for online retailers, with year-on-year sales growth across most categories, including toys and baby equipment and house textiles.

Whilst sales growth was minimal, it could point to some signs of recovery for the sector, and retailers will be eager for that trend to continue as they carefully maintain their pricing, stock and cost base. Over the coming weeks retailers will be hoping that warmer weather, purchases related to summer holiday demand and Euro 2024 provide a stimulus to get consumers buying again. The economy may be improving, but the health of the sector remains fragile, with major investment held back by many until there are clear signs that consumer confidence has turned into spending.

With the General Election date fixed, retailers will be keen to hear positive measures to help boost the economy and, in particular, signs that long awaited changes to the business rates regime are finally on their way.”

Read May's report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

"The positive sales growth seen in March was short lived as the impact of an early Easter and continued wet and chilly weather saw April retail sales fall by 4% year on year.

Health, beauty and personal care sales remained resilient categories and there was a surprised return to positive sales growth for computing for the first time in over two years, both instore and online. The food category is always buoyed by Easter, but looking at the three month figures food and drink shows positive sales growth, albeit dampened volumes. Online and high street sales across categories that can be delayed, including clothing and footwear, remain subdued as no one is rushing out yet for summer clothing.

On paper consumers should arguably be feeling more able to go out spending again as economic conditions improve, but on the back of two years of budgeting and cost cutting, cautious consumers are releasing the purse-strings much more slowly than they tightened them, choosing to save or pay down debt. The positive sales figures seen in March due to an early Easter demonstrate the importance that triggers such as warmer weather, events and occasions can have in helping to deliver the necessary impact required to get consumers spending again. Retailers will be hoping that there might still be an early summer interest rate cut, a strong performance from England and Scotland in the Euros, and an uptick in temperatures. Together this might be the trigger to boost consumer’s willingness to spend in the weeks ahead.”

Read April's report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

"After a tough start to the year, an early Easter showed the green shoots of spring with total sales in Scotland increasing by 2.8% in March. Whilst this seems disappointing compared to the increase of 8.8% last March, this was above the 3-month average increase of 2.1% and when adjusted for inflation is a positive 1.5% year-on-year growth. 

 High street sales growth was driven by food and drink, health and beauty and keen gardeners who headed outside to enjoy the first days of spring. There were also some signs of green shoots with more categories starting to see positive sales growth in March for the first time in months. 

As April signals big increases in the sector’s cost base – through the rise in minimum wage rates and business rate hikes for the larger high street brands – retailers will be hoping that the bounce back of March sales is more than just an Easter blip. Economic indicators are heading in the right direction with inflationary pressures easing and interest rates having potentially peaked, however consumer confidence remains fragile and households continue to keep a close eye on where their tight budgets are being spent. It remains a challenging environment, but as we head into the warmer months retailers will be hoping that stronger consumer confidence will turn into stronger retail sales, especially in more discretionary categories such as clothing, following an incredibly difficult few years."

Read March's report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“Cuts in national insurance rates designed to put more money in people’s pockets have so far failed to translate to a boost to consumer spend on the high street, with retail sales growth in February recording a limp 1.1%.

Health and beauty categories continued to drive sales both on the high street and online, whilst sales of home and dining accessories received an unexpected boost last month, as consumers moved from buying clothes to buying cushions and cooking items. With food inflation slowing, sales of food and drink remained strong at 5%, but this was slightly down on January’s figures.

As many households continue to adapt budgets to meet higher essential costs, including higher mortgage rates, consumer reluctance to get out there and start spending is likely to remain in the short term. With big increases in labour costs and business rates just weeks away, adding to an already stressed cost agenda for retailers, many will be pinning their hopes on some good news in the Chancellors’ Spring Budget this week to help kick start a spending revival on the high street. As inflation continues to slow over the coming months and household finances are expected to improve, there is some light at the end of the tunnel for weary households. However, the assumption that having more spending power will lead to more spending isn’t cutting through at the moment, and retailers will continue to face significant downward pressures on demand in the months to come. “

Read February’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

"It may be a new year, but the hangover of low consumer confidence remains, with retail sales growing by a lacklustre 1.7% on the high street, and online operators seeing yet another month of negative sales performance.

Health and beauty purchasing continued to drive sales both on the high street and online, whilst sun seekers and consumers with healthy resolutions front of mind, gave a boost to sports and travel equipment sales, which were up over 4% year on year.

The extraordinary weather conditions across large parts of the country did little to encourage shoppers out on to the high street, whilst continued industrial action on the rail network was unhelpful for city centre locations. Whilst there are some positive signs that mortgage rates are starting to fall and stabilise, and shop inflation has fallen to its lowest level in over a year the feel good factor has yet to materialise at the tills.

It remains a difficult environment for retailers facing into significant downward pressures on demand, a strong promotional environment and uncertainty hitting supply chains due to rising geopolitical tensions. Retailers will be hoping that continued good news on the economy, coupled with the small boost given to some consumers as cuts in national insurance start to feed through to pay packets will boost confidence and convert to sales. With increases in labour costs and business rates around the corner, retailers will be hoping for good news in the Chancellors’ upcoming Budget to give consumers that lift they need to start spending again.”

Read January’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“The festive feel-good factor was lacking this year as many retailers faced a disappointing December with sales growth only up 1.7% on 2022.

Christmas shoppers ditched clothing, jewellery, and technology gifts, opting for beauty, health, and personal care products, which, along with food and drink drove festive sales this year. Online sales remained in negative territory, although the decline was weaker than seen in recent months with sales down nearly 1% on last year.

Retailers rolled out promotions that lasted longer and were deeper than last year and higher promotional activity amongst supermarkets saw grocery price inflation fall at its fastest rate on record in December. Whilst promotions are margin dilutive, retailers have done some great work in re-engineering supply chains to make them more cost effective, which has given more room to push ahead with discounting, and given the current environment, this is likely to stay with us for a while.

Despite falls in inflation, an upcoming cut in national insurance rates, and some consumers having more money in their pockets this Christmas than last, the constant drip of economic challenges they’ve faced over the last two years has finally come home to roost. As we start a new year, cautious consumers are battening down the hatches and retailers can expect to see significant downward pressures on demand in the opening months of this year, which will ease off by Spring if the economic conditions continue to improve and confidence slowly returns.”

Read December's report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“With the clock ticking down to Christmas, sales growth in November remained weak at 2.7%, despite a big push from retailers around Black Friday deals.

Food and drink, health, personal care, and beauty categories continued to drive growth whilst jewellery and watches saw the biggest decline in sales on the high street, suggesting consumers are abandoning expensive presents in favour of more budget friendly gifting. Online sales fell yet again, but penetration rates rose by 5% on October to 41.5% as consumers shopped around for Black Friday bargains.

With less than a month to go and sales growth limping along, the cost-of-living crisis has taken its toll on Christmas spending for many households, and the continued economic conditions are testing consumer resilience. Price remains the main purchasing driver, so we are likely to see a prolonged and well targeted period of discounting as retailers compete hard for a shrinking pool of spend and will need to clear stock.

With two of the three months of the crucial golden quarter seeing sales growth below 3%, it has already been a weak Christmas trading period. Any excess stock not sold before Christmas could be further reduced leading to big January sales, and potentially having an even greater impact on already tight margins. As we look to the first few months of 2024, we can expect the challenges to continue which could lead to further casualties in the sector, particularly pure online players facing more than 28 months of consecutive sales decline.”

Read November’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

"Retail sales remained weak in October with growth of just 2.5%. Food and drink and health and beauty categories continued to drive sales, while a mild October saw consumers put off shopping trips to replenish winter wardrobes. Online sales continued to struggle, with negative sales growth recorded in every category other than health and Other Non-Food. This could herald the most competitive Black Friday period that we’ve seen in a while.

“Whilst consumers are now operating in a lower inflationary environment compared to October last year where inflation peaked at over 11%, there is no doubt that the last 12 months have taken a toll on confidence and their ability to spend. Coupled with a higher interest rate environment, dwindling covid savings and the heating coming back on, beleaguered consumers are thinking very carefully about how they spend their money. As a result, the strong demand that has kept some retailers afloat over the last 18 months is now falling away.

“Although the retail sector has done some sterling work around controlling their own cost environment, the health of the industry is at the mercy of macro demand. Retailers are facing a challenging Christmas, competing for a shrinking share of wallet, driven by promotions that will no doubt cut into already stretched margins. With spending levels expected to be much more muted this year, the run up to Christmas could be the most challenging we’ve seen since pre-pandemic days.”

Read October's report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“Retail sales continued to limp along, with growth up just 2.7% despite inflation falling in September.

Food and drink, and health and beauty continue to be the strongest performing categories on the high street, whilst a growing number of categories including clothing, fell into negative territory over September as the unseasonal warm weather delayed trips to the shops to stock up on winter wardrobe purchases. Online sales growth continued to fall, with just health, beauty and jewellery recording positive sales growth. September signals the 26th month of continuous online sales decline and retailers will be hoping for a strong Black Friday in order to turn the tide.

With the warmer weather delaying household heating being switched on, positive news around falling inflation and a hold on rising interest rates, consumers will hopefully be feeling more confident as thoughts turn to Christmas shopping.

After years of battling challenges, the resilience of the retail sector has been dented and we are starting to see the gap between the strongest and the weakest on the high street widen. The fight for Christmas shoppers will be fierce this year, with promotions likely to be earlier and abundant in a bid to loosen tight household purse strings. Consumers will continue to seek out good deals, with price driving purchasing decisions. This is likely to be one of the most important golden quarters that we have seen in years, as for some in the sector, it could very much determine their future.”

Read September’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“August saw a bounce back in retail sales growth to 4.1%, which will come as a relief for many retailers.

Health, beauty and food and drink were the strongest performing categories both on the high street and online, as consumers made the most of brief spells of sunshine to enjoy the summer holidays. Internet retailers continue to struggle as online sales fell yet again in August, dropping by 3% year on year.

As summer comes to an end, retailers will have their sights firmly set on the most crucial period of trading as consumers get ready for Christmas. Inflation levels are heading in the right direction, albeit much more slowly than hoped and savvy shoppers will be Christmas bargain hunting much earlier this year, as price continues to drive decisions and consumers seek out good deals that will stretch their budgets further. Becoming more calculated and more aware of what they are getting for their money than we have seen for a long time, means retailers will have to fight harder for every sale.

Having fought off the pandemic and the cost of living crisis, we are already starting to see the resilience of the sector start to fade and high street casualties are starting to emerge. Maintaining consumer confidence as we head into the golden quarter will be absolutely vital for some in the sector, who will need a good Christmas in order to continue trading in 2024.”

Read August’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“As the storm clouds came out, shoppers retreated, with like for like sales growth a dismal 1.5% up in July. Furniture and food & drink were the best sellers, whilst the wet weather meant no need to restock summer wardrobes, with all categories of clothing falling into negative sales territory, in what is usually a busy month for clothing retailers. Online sales continued to slide, falling nearly 7% year on year, with just a handful of categories such as furniture, health and beauty performing well.

 “We are starting to see a big rise in the number of promotions that retailers are putting in place in order to get shoppers through the door, as they battle to keep market share. Price conscious consumers are shopping more carefully, more aware of where bargains can be found and what they are getting for their money – which is biting hard into retail margins and profitability. UK consumers have been hugely resilient throughout the cost-of-living crisis, but stubbornly high inflation coupled with rapidly rising interest rates will test their ability and willingness to keep on spending for the rest of this year.­ ­

“Both consumers and retailers are finding that they are having to get used to doing more with less as conditions remain incredibly challenging."

Read July’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“The sun was shining on retailers in June, with the warm weather bringing consumers back out to the high street and like for like sales up nearly 5% on last year.

Sales of suntan lotion, food and clothing were all given a boost as consumers made the most of the record June temperatures. Online sales continued to fall in June, but at a much lower rate, with household appliances and gardening equipment proving popular with consumers.

Apart from a blip in May, retail sales growth has remained steady at around 5% every month in the first half of this year. However, the growth comes against a background of much higher inflation levels – resulting in reduced margins and profitability for operators across the sector.

As we move into the last half the year, retailers will be hoping that anticipated falls in inflation levels start to deliver stronger sales growth in order to improve the overall health of the sector. The wild card continues to be food inflation levels which remain stubborn, and are having a negative impact on consumers’ ability to spend on non-essential items.

Consumers have so far remained resilient, but the triple threats of further interest rate hikes, resolute double digit food inflation and an economy recovering at a much slower rate than predicted, could hamper a return to much needed profitable growth across the retail sector.”

Read June's report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“Despite warmer weather, a national celebration and month of bank holidays, retailers saw pretty mild growth in May with sales figures up just 3.9% on last year, and lower than the 5% growth seen in April.

“High street retailers saw more categories slip into negative sales territory last month, with health, beauty and food driving sales on the high street.  The gloom continued for online retailers with just four categories registering positive sales figures and total sales down by 1%.  Online penetration rates continued to slide sitting at 36%, as consumers return to bargain hunting in store.

“Retailers will be hoping that inflation levels in the wider economy continue to move in the right direction in order to boost much needed consumer confidence.  The wild card for the retail sector remains uncontrollable food inflation, which shows little sign of coming down in the near future, and this is having a significant knock-on effect on non-essential spending.  The grocery sector is the fastest growing part of the consumer wallet at the moment, so consumers are having to spend more of their money in the one area that is getting disproportionately more expensive.

“UK consumers are resilient, but with stubbornly high food inflation continuing and the prospect of further interest rate rises threatening to impact their ability to spend elsewhere, it is likely to be a long, hot summer for the retail sector.”

Read May’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“Retail sales held steady in April with 5% growth on last year, but against a background of higher inflation year on year, masking how much is actually healthy growth for the sector.  

It was a mixed bag for the high street, with sales of footwear, food and jewellery performing strongly whilst more categories slipped into negative territory as clothing and computing continued to witness declining sales. Online retailers continued to feel the pressure in April, with both sales growth and penetration rates falling as the market rebalances after the pandemic and consumers choose to bargain hunt in store.

Consumer demand has so far been fairly resilient to the twin drags of high inflation and high interest rates, but as government energy support comes to an end for many, savings start to dwindle and other household bills rise, it is likely that the next few months will continue to be challenging as the consumer tank empties. Much hinges on whether soaring food inflation can be bought under control enough to allow consumers to comfortably start spending again on non-essential items.

Retailers will be hoping that the Coronation coupled with a month full of bank holidays and inflation levels starting to head in the right direction will boost consumer confidence significantly enough to start to see real, profitable growth.” 

Read April’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“Many Retailers hoping for a Mother’s Day boost will have been disappointed with the overall sector experiencing sales growth of just 5% in March, against a backdrop of rising inflation running at more than 10%.

High street retailers saw some limited growth across most categories in March, but as consumers cut back on eating out, spending on home comforts, accessories and furniture saw the biggest growth, as people look to entertain at home.  Online retailers also benefited from the boost in sales of items for the home, but saw continued decline in sales across most other categories, particularly clothing.

 As we enter the crucial month of April, rising utility costs, council tax and mobile bills coupled with frozen personal tax rates and the withdrawal of energy bill support will see consumers having to further cut back on discretionary spending.  Consumers will continue to take steps to reduce spend where they can - switching where they shop, what they buy, and spending on fewer items. 

The challenge for retailers right now is having to face into their own rising cost agenda, as the rise in minimum wage rates comes into effect and inflation continues to challenge margins, whilst ensuring affordability, choice and value for customers, which will be key to keeping the tills ringing.

As the difficult economic conditions continue, retailers will be hoping that April prompts consumers to look for some comfort in tasty chocolate treats and the sun starts to shine forcing replenishment of summer wardrobes.”

Read March’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“With overall inflation running at around 10%, and food inflation sitting nearer 20%, total sales growth for February of just 5% will be eating hard into retail margins and masking the true state of the sector’s health.

Consumers are continuing to hold back on non-essential spending with sales of clothing, footwear and accessories, which have been very influential in spending for many months, continuing to decline in February.  Furniture and homeware have been driving sales growth on the high street and online but we are starting to see more categories record negative sales year on year, as household budgets remain squeezed.

With increases in energy, broadband, mobile phone and council tax bills on the horizon, consumers will continue to take steps to reduce spend where they can - switching where they shop, what they buy, whilst also cutting back on activities, such as eating out and takeaways.  As much of the growth in retail is being driven by inflation, price and promotional strategies have become increasingly important growth engines for retailers. Online retailers will also have to review their business models, and there are likely to be some failures in this space, particularly among the businesses that are currently over-valued following the surge in demand during the pandemic which has now decelerated.

The outlook will continue to be challenging with falling consumer spending in real terms and as more people choose to shop by ‘occasion’, retailers will be pulling out the stops for a buoyant Easter and Mother's Day.”

Read February’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.

“With inflation running at around 10%, sales growth for January nearly halved in comparison to December to just over 4% - sending a clear signal that consumers have started the year with a tight rein on spending as they face another period of rising costs. 

Sales of clothing continued to prop up the high street, with men’s clothes and shoes the strongest category in January, whilst purchases of energy efficient appliances remained a top purchase for consumers.  The decline in sales taking place online continued this month, but is starting to level out and far from the 24% drop in sales that online retailers witnessed a year ago in January. 

As we head into a difficult time for consumers, the short-term outlook for the retail sector remains challenging. With the latest interest rate rise and utility price increases heading our way, shrinking household incomes means we will continue to see a shift in what consumers buy and where they buy from.  Retailers face a tightrope as their costs rise and margins are squeezed, whilst at the same time having  to ensure affordability and value for customers.  Although retailers have demonstrated resilience over recent years, it is likely we will continue to see casualties both online and on the high street this year.  Those retailers that have emerged from the pandemic in good shape will benefit from the current situation through market-share growth and consolidation opportunities, but all retailers are facing a tough few months of falling consumer spending in real terms.”  

Read January’s report complete with sales data from the British Retail Consortium.