“Today’s data has raised the risk of the Chancellor missing her fiscal targets in next week’s forecast update. The judgements of the OBR will still be key, however there may not be much room for the Chancellor to defer major tax and spending decisions to the Autumn Budget.
“Borrowing in February was some £4.2bn more than the OBR’s October prediction, and more bad news came in the revisions to past data, with January’s surplus revised down by £2.1bn.
“This means overall borrowing for 2024/25 is now expected to reach £148.7bn, far more than the OBR expected at the Budget.”
