The global trade outlook 2026: What comes next, and where does India fit in?

When it comes to current global trade, uncertainty is the new certainty. Nobody knows where trade policies will finally land, especially when it comes to tariff impositions. Recent estimates reveal that about 72 per cent of global trade professionals rank US tariff volatility as the most impactful regulatory change.³ For many countries and companies, navigating this has come at a cost. Higher tariffs have decreased manufacturing margins, which has also had adverse effects on the quality of products. Besides, tighter checks on product classification and country-of-origin rules have added to compliance pressure. Today, agreements are being negotiated across regions to get favourable trade terms, slowly reshaping trade flows.

Going ahead, volatility is expected to continue, with 76 per cent of trade professionals anticipating that the new US tariffs signal a long-term shift in trade policy–likely to remain for at least four years–rather than a temporary measure.⁴ While retaliatory responses against the tariffs have been relatively measured so far, long-term stability will depend on more predictable and balanced trade strategies.

Emerging tech, particularly AI, is expected to be one of the bright spots for global trade. AI-related goods–including semiconductors and telecommunication equipment–have seen accelerated demand, as there has been a substantial increase in global AI usage. AI-related spending drove nearly half of global trade in the first half of 2025, rising 20 per cent year-on-year in value terms.⁵ This favourable demand has turned emerging markets in Asia into strong manufacturing and export hubs. In the year ahead, we could see AI-related products boost global trade. For instance, with the global semiconductor market approaching USD1 trillion in 2026, the prospects appear to be optimistic.⁶ That said, policy uncertainty and trade restrictions remain a real risk to this momentum.

From an organisation’s point of view, resilience in 2026 is increasingly about nearshoring and multi-country sourcing. Companies are spreading production and supplier bases across regions to reduce concentration risk. They are also focusing on ensuring modal flexibility between ocean, air and other transport options when disruptions hit. Besides, there’s a stronger push towards increasing digitastion, having tools that can improve end-to-end visibility and help teams foresee issues before they escalate. For instance, proactive risk mapping is emerging as a key strategy, allowing organisations to identify vulnerable suppliers, alternate routes and exposure to climate events or geopolitical shocks and respond before operations are impacted. At the policy level, countries will be looking to sign favourable trade agreements to secure their markets amid uncertain times, especially when it comes to critical goods.