1 January 2026 signalled exactly 12 months until banks need to implement the bulk of the PRA’s Basel 3.1 requirements – excluding the market risk internal model component, which will follow by 1 January 2028 – or apply the new prudential regime for Small Domestic Deposit Takers. The EU, now a year into its implementation of CRR3, is also considering extending its market risk timeline, a move that would require further legislation. There are indications that the US may present its revised approach to the Basel 3 Endgame in Q1 2026, although this is yet to be confirmed. Uncertainty and variations in local approaches continue to increase complexity for global banks.
Bank – and wider – stress testing will continue to evolve to match the demands of the changing risk landscape. Banks in both the UK and EU remain well capitalised, as evidenced by the EBA/ECB stress tests and the recently concluded BoE Bank Capital Stress Test (BCST). However, this is not the whole picture. In 2026, the ECB will conduct a reverse stress test, and the UK will run a second System Wide Exploratory Scenario (SWES), this time focused on private credit.
Prudential regulators have been holding the line on any dilution of requirements that might adversely impact financial stability, and this is not expected to change. However, they may further make pragmatic and proportionate adjustments to support growth and competitiveness objectives. This has been seen already in some reductions in regulatory reporting – to reduce duplication and remove obsolete templates – and in the UK Financial Policy Committee’s update to the benchmark for Tier 1 capital. Further work on the UK capital framework is planned and final policy is expected on large exposures and the PRA’s review of Pillar 2 methodologies. The UK ring-fencing regime, another hotly debated area, will also be reviewed and may see some significant revisions, although it is unlikely to be removed altogether.
Finally, focus will continue on banks’ digital and AI-related strategies, governance and risk management.
See also ESG/Sustainability, Operational Resilience and AI below.