KPMG International survey of 700 global dealmakers reveals rising M&A expectations

Key findings

• Private equity (PE) is the most bullish on deal growth, with the US showing the strongest momentum: 37% of PE dealmakers expect to do more than five deals in 2026, versus 20% of corporates, while US-based organizations report the highest confidence and readiness to transact.
• AI is now embedded across the M&A lifecycle and making previously uneconomical analysis viable: dealmakers are already using it across diligence, sourcing, execution and integration, with measurable efficiency gains in modelling, market analysis and decision-making.
• Carve-outs are moving to the center of PE strategy, with KPMG identifying 2026 as the year of the carve-out: 71% of PE dealmakers are open to or actively pursuing portfolio separation, and 55% already have carve-outs under consideration.

18 March 2026 — Today, KPMG International has published its 2026 Global M&A Outlook Survey, capturing insights from a survey of 700 PE and corporate dealmakers across 20 countries and jurisdictions.

A more confident market — in a more complex world

The findings come at a time when dealmakers are navigating a more complex decision-making environment. Legislative and regulatory volatility, evolving trade regimes and global conflicts, as well as transformational changes in global tax frameworks are reshaping forward-looking cost structures and return profiles.

In this environment, organizations are not only pursuing acquisitions to drive growth, but also actively reshaping portfolios to improve focus, reduce risk and reallocate capital.

PE confidence rises, even as deal sizes stay disciplined

Despite this complexity, PE firms are showing particularly strong expectations for deal growth, underpinned by the need to deploy capital, improving financing conditions and a gradual reopening of exit markets.

At the same time, expected deal sizes remain disciplined. 95% of PE dealmakers and 83% of corporate dealmakers expect the total value of their next transaction to be under US$1bn. For their next M&A transaction, PE and corporate dealmakers most commonly expect deal values to fall between US$250m and under US$500m (cited by 50% of PE and 32% of corporate dealmakers respectively).

Growth, capability and market expansion are driving deal appetite

The top strategic drivers for M&A decisions in 2026 were reported as expanding into new markets or geographies (58%), growing core business (57%) and acquiring technological capabilities or talent (46%).

Interest in carve-outs is rising sharply, with half of both PE and corporate dealmakers expecting carve-out activity to increase moderately or significantly over the next 12–24 months. 71% of PE dealmakers are open to, or actively pursuing portfolio separation, and 55% report already having carve-outs under consideration (versus 21% of corporate dealmakers). The carve-out shift is being driven less by short-term market conditions than by strategic portfolio reshaping — dealmakers cite improving operational efficiency (52%), enhancing the valuation of remaining businesses (42%), reducing risk pressure (35%), and unlocking capital for reinvestment (33%) as the main drivers for increased carve-out activity.

In practice, this means organizations are proactively separating businesses that dilute strategic focus, absorb disproportionate management attention or concentrate risk outside core capabilities — with the aim of redirecting capital and leadership capacity toward areas positioned for durable growth. Against this backdrop, 2026 is shaping up to be the year of the carve-out.

AI is being embedded across the M&A lifecycle — with clear efficiency gains already emerging

At the same time, AI is moving beyond experimentation and becoming embedded across the M&A lifecycle. One of the more significant shifts is not simply that AI is improving speed, but that it is making previously uneconomical analysis viable — including more exhaustive contract review, continuous integration risk monitoring, deeper competitive benchmarking, and stronger pattern recognition across deal history.

The survey shows where organizations are deploying agentic AI across M&A processes:

• 56% in due diligence and valuation
• 53% in deal sourcing and strategy
• 45% in post-merger acquisition
• 40% in deal execution
• 39% in regulatory compliance and monitoring
• 31% in stakeholder communications and change management

Dealmakers are also reporting measurable efficiency gains in key areas of the M&A lifecycle. 17% said AI is delivering a greater than 25% efficiency gain in valuation modeling and scenario planning, as well as budget modeling and tracking, with 3% reporting a 50%+ AI efficiency gain across both categories.

In competitive intelligence and market analysis, 59% report AI is providing a greater than 10% efficiency gain, including 19% reporting a 26–50% efficiency gain and 7% reporting a 50%+ efficiency gain.

Execution risk is rising alongside deal complexity

As deal activity accelerates, execution demands are becoming more visible and more consequential. Carve-outs, staged transactions, joint ventures and capability-driven acquisitions can place significantly greater demands on organizations than traditional full-business acquisitions.

Survey results reinforce this challenge, with dealmakers consistently identifying operational disentanglement (52%), valuation complexity (43%), IT and data separation (40%), talent retention (32%) and regulatory hurdles (25%) as material risks to successful outcomes.

Evolving tax regimes, trade volatility and shifting regulatory thresholds are adding further modeling and compliance demands, reinforcing the importance of execution readiness before close.