Q1’26 Pulse of Private Equity

PE landscape in 2026

Entering Q1’26, private equity sentiment was cautiously optimistic, supported by significant dry powder, signs of improving exit conditions, and a stabilising macro backdrop. This momentum softened as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East triggered a brief pullback in deal activity.

Despite lower deal volumes, deal values remained resilient, reflecting investors continued focus on large, high‑quality assets. Activity was dominated by a small number of high‑conviction transactions across energy, infrastructure, and adjacent sectors. During the quarter, the three largest deals globally included:

Take private of US-based clean energy infrastructure firm AES by Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT for $41 billion,
The announced secondary buyout of Poland-based parcel pickup company InPost by a consortium led by Advent International and FedEx for $9.2 billion, and
The completed buyout of Germany-based smart fitness company EGYM by Playlist for $7.5 billion in a deal led by Affinity Partners.

Exits remain challenging. While aggregate exit value was solid at $294bn, exit volumes declined further in Q1’26, with IPO activity particularly muted amid renewed market volatility.

Notwithstanding near‑term uncertainty, deal activity proved relatively robust — especially in the US and EMA regions — and there remains cautious optimism that improving market conditions could support a stronger second half of 2026, including a gradual recovery in IPO activity.

PE Pulse

This quarters edition of our PE Pulse examins:

The continued focus on AI and energy infrastructure
The impact of the Iran conflict on PE investment
The continued slowdown in exit activity
The focus on high-value, high-quality, high conviction deals
Puts a spotlight on IPO Markets in 2026

Explore the Q1’26 regional insights

In Q1’26, Global PE-announced four-quarter sums amounted to $2.1 across 19,682 transactions

Global highlights of Q1’26

During Q1’26, global PE deal value was $436.4 billion across 4,168 deals; on a rolling twelve-month basis
Deal volume falls from 21,026 deals to five year low of 19,682 deals
During Q1’26, exit flow was $294.1 billion globally across 635 PE exits; this included $140.4 billion through 298 acquisitions, $119.7 billion through 306 buyouts, and $37 billion through 31 public listings (both IPOs and reverse mergers)

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Global PE investors remain selective in Q1’26 as deal volume falls further

During Q1’26, the global PE market saw $436 billion in announced deal value; this caused the rolling 12-month total for PE investment to fall slightly, from $2.2 trillion in Q4’25 to $2.1 trillion in Q1’26, although the total remained high compared to levels seen over the last three years. More notable was PE deal volume, which remained weak. During Q1’26, there were just 4,168 PE deals globally, which dropped the rolling 12-month total for deal volume from 21,026 to 19,682 quarter-over-quarter, the lowest level since Q1’21.

Americas attract largest share of PE funding globally, followed by the EMA region

The Americas accounted for $247 billion in PE deal value across 1,980 deals in Q1’26. As is typical, the US accounted for the largest share of the Americas total during the quarter: $228 billion in investment across 1,811 deals, led by the $41 billion take private of AES. Outside of the US, the largest deal in the Americas was the $3.4 billion buyout of Peru-based renewable energy generation and distribution company Inkia Energy by the Canada Pension Plan and I Squared Capital.

By comparison, the EMA region saw $154 billion in PE deal value across 1,816 deals, led by the $9.2 billion buyout of InPost, while the ASPAC region saw $26 billion in PE investment across 255 deals, led by the $5.1 billion secondary buyout of Singapore-based data center infrastructure company ST Telemedia Global Data Centres by a consortium led by KKR.

Rolling 12-month fundraising falls for the eighth consecutive quarter to lowest level since Q1’17

During Q1’26, the 12-month rolling total of global PE fundraising fell to the lowest level since Q1’17, with just $373 billion raised across 549 funds. This reflects a major drop from $421 billion across 656 funds in Q4’25 and a level of fundraising not seen since Q1’17. The soft fundraising activity reflects a number of factors, including the high level of dry powder already in the hands of PE funds and the strong pressure on PE to return capital to their LPs prior to raising new funds.

Trends to watch for in Q2’26

Heading into Q2’26, PE investment is expected to remain focused on high-quality, high-conviction deals, particularly in AI-adjacent companies like data centres, digital infrastructure and energy. The defence sector could also see an uptick in investment, driven in part by the large commitments being made by governments in the space.

While efforts are being made to secure a lasting peace, the outcome and broader implications for global energy markets remain fluid and uncertain. There is still concern around oil and gas prices, energy availability, and the potential for inflationary pressure, although these risks will likely begin to moderate over the course of Q2’26 and into Q3’26 if conditions continue to stabilise. Over the longer term, heightened awareness of global energy dynamics could also create positive ripple effects, including increased interest in alternative energy sources and related infrastructure.

What stands out most in this quarter’s Pulse is the resilience of private equity in the face of renewed geopolitical and macro uncertainty. While volatility has clearly shaped behaviour, capital is still moving decisively toward high conviction opportunities – particularly across energy, infrastructure and AI enabled platforms. At the same time, the pressure to deliver exits and return capital is sharpening discipline across the market. For sponsors, success in this environment will hinge on selectivity, operational focus and a clear line of sight to value realisation.

Sarah Hume

Partner

Private Equity Group, Guernsey

This quarter reinforces how bifurcated the private equity market has become. The very best assets – those with scale, resilience and strategic relevance – continue to attract capital, even as deal volumes and exits remain constrained. With fundraising under pressure and portfolios maturing, sponsors are being forced to prioritise quality over pace, creativity over leverage, and execution over optimism. It’s a market that rewards discipline and deep conviction.

Ben Honeywood

Partner

Private Equity Group, Jersey