The KPMG 2025 Global ENRC CEO Outlook paints a picture of leaders operating in one of the most complex operating environments of any sector. Energy, natural resources and chemicals (ENRC) CEOs face volatile geopolitics, accelerating demand, regulatory divergence and a disorderly energy transition, all while being expected to deliver growth, resilience and sustainability. Yet despite this turbulence, confidence remains high. The most instructive lessons for family businesses lie not in the sector’s specifics, but in how CEOs are prioritising, sequencing and leading through uncertainty.
Confidence built on realism, not certainty
A striking finding is the level of confidence paired with realism. More than four‑fifths of ENRC CEOs are confident in industry growth, even as they acknowledge inflation, supply‑chain fragility, cyber threats and rising regulatory complexity. This duality is familiar to many family business leaders: optimism about long‑term demand, tempered by constant short‑term disruption. The insight here is not blind confidence, but disciplined conviction, the ability to invest forward while actively managing risk.
AI as an enabler of resilience and better decisions
One area where this balance is especially visible is AI adoption. AI has moved decisively from experimentation into the core operating agenda. A majority of ENRC CEOs now see returns from AI within a one‑to‑three‑year horizon, driven primarily by efficiency gains and improved decision‑making rather than headcount reduction. This mirrors what many family enterprises are starting to discover: AI’s real value lies not in scale alone, but in reducing complexity, optimising assets, improving forecasting and strengthening resilience.
However, CEOs are also clear‑eyed about the constraints. Ethical concerns, fragmented data and skills gaps remain significant barriers. For family businesses, this is a useful caution. Technology does not bypass governance; it amplifies it. Where data foundations and decision rights are unclear, AI increases risk rather than reducing it. The ENRC experience reinforces the importance of investing in data quality, accountability and leadership understanding alongside digital tools.
People, culture and the future ready workforce
The workforce dimension is another critical theme. While most ENRC CEOs believe their organisations are ‘ready’ for AI, far fewer have embedded this readiness through transparent communication and enterprise‑wide upskilling. Many are reskilling selectively, redeploying talent and competing aggressively for scarce engineering and AI capability. Family businesses, often characterised by long‑tenured employees and deep institutional knowledge, face a different but related challenge: ensuring trusted teams are not left behind by rapid technological change.
The lesson here is cultural, not technical. CEOs emphasise the need to reposition their sectors, and by extension their organisations, as places where employees can have meaningful, future‑relevant careers. Family firms, with their strong identity and values, are well placed to do this if they frame AI as an enabler of purpose and longevity, not just productivity.
Resilience through supply chains, M&A and ESG integration
Supply‑chain resilience emerges as the single biggest short‑term driver of decision‑making. ENRC CEOs point to geopolitical shocks, climate events and infrastructure constraints, particularly grid capacity, as structural risks rather than temporary disruptions. This long‑term view of supply‑chain exposure is something many family businesses underestimate, especially where supplier relationships feel stable by history rather than design.
Similarly, M&A is becoming more selective and strategic. High‑impact deals are down, while moderate, capability‑driven acquisitions are rising, particularly in renewables, mining assets and digital infrastructure. This shift aligns closely with family enterprise instincts: bolt‑on acquisitions that enhance agility, control and optionality rather than transformational bets that threaten balance‑sheet stability.
ESG provides perhaps the most nuanced insight. While sustainability remains embedded in strategy for most ENRC CEOs, many admit their execution lags stakeholder expectations. The challenge is not commitment, but integration. Only a minority fully embed ESG into capital allocation, and many are grappling with fragmented data and inconsistent regulatory regimes. AI is increasingly seen as an enabler of better emissions tracking, scenario modelling and reporting, but only where governance is strong.
For family businesses, the parallel is clear. ESG cannot sit alongside strategy; it must shape it. Where sustainability is treated as disclosure rather than decision‑input, credibility erodes. Long‑term owners have an advantage here: they can justify investments that align economic resilience with social and environmental stewardship, even where short‑term returns are less certain.
Leadership lessons for long term owners
Finally, the outlook reinforces a core leadership truth: the ability to steer through uncertainty is now a defining competency. ENRC CEOs highlight future leadership capabilities that will resonate far beyond energy, agility, transparency, regulatory fluency and end‑to‑end thinking. These are not traits developed by reacting faster, but by thinking longer.
For family business leaders, the takeaway is powerful. Confidence does not come from certainty. It comes from clarity of priorities, disciplined investment in capability, and the willingness to lead decisively through complex trade‑offs. In that sense, the ENRC sector, despite its volatility, offers a valuable playbook for any family enterprise navigating a world where stability must be actively built.
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