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      Key findings

      • Permanent and temporary labour availability rises rapidly.
      • Recruitment activity falls at softer, but still marked rate.
      • Starting salaries increase at softest pace for four-and-a-half years.

      Data collected 12-22 August

      Summary

      Ongoing uncertainty around the economic outlook and concerns over costs contributed to a further reduction in staff hiring across the UK in August, according to the latest KPMG and REC UK Report on Jobs survey, compiled by S&P Global.

      Recruiters signalled further marked falls in permanent placements and temp billings in the latest survey period, though the rates of decline were the least pronounced in three months. Overall vacancies meanwhile fell sharply once again, which, alongside reports of redundancies, drove the steepest upturn in candidate availability since November 2020. Shrinking demand for staff and concerns around payroll costs dampened rates of starting pay in August. Notably, starting salaries and temp pay both increased at rates far below averages seen since the survey began in 1997.

      The report is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 UK recruitment and employment consultancies.

      Staff hiring falls at softer but still marked rate

      Recruitment consultancies across the UK signalled a further reduction in the number of people placed into permanent job roles in August. Although the rate of contraction was the slowest seen in three months, it was steep overall and often linked to weak confidence around the economic outlook and concerns over costs.

      Permanent Placements Index

      Temporary Billings

      50.0 = no-change

      Sources: KPMG, REC, S&P Global PMI.

      Temp billings also fell at a slower, but still solid rate.

      Sharpest rise in candidate numbers since November 2020

      The availability of staff increased at a rapid and accelerated rate in August. Furthermore, the latest upturns in permanent and temporary labour supply were the most pronounced since November 2020, with the former seeing the sharper rate of growth overall. According to recruiters, redundancies, fewer job opportunities and concerns over current job security were key factors pushing up worker availability.

      Overall demand for staff continues to fall

      That latest survey pointed to a further marked drop in total vacancies across the UK midway through the third quarter. Notably, the pace of reduction was the steepest recorded in six months. Divergent trends were seen by job type, however, with a sharper decline in permanent vacancies contrasting with a softer fall in temporary job opportunities.

      Permanent starters' salaries increase only marginally

      Recruiters operating across the UK signalled muted rates of pay growth for both permanent and temporary staff in August. Furthermore, the increase in starting salaries was the weakest recorded in four-and-a-half years and only marginal, while temp wage inflation also remained much slower than the historical trend. Softer rates of pay growth were often linked to increased candidate availability, lower demand for staff and tighter client budgets.

      Regional and Sector Variations

      August survey data indicated that permanent staff appointments declined across all four monitored English areas, with the steepest reduction seen in the South of England.

      The South of England recorded by far the sharpest reduction in temp billings in August. The Midlands meanwhile bucked the wider trend and registered a marginal expansion.

      Construction was the only monitored sector to register an increase in demand for permanent workers in August, albeit marginal. The Retail sector meanwhile maintained its position at the bottom of the rankings, registering a rapid drop in perm vacancies, followed by Hotel & Catering.

      August survey data pointed to a broad-based reduction in short-term vacancies, led by the Retail sector. The softest falls in demand were meanwhile signalled for short-term positions in the Construction and Blue Collar sectors.

      Comments

      Commenting on the latest survey results, Jon Holt, Group Chief Executive and UK Senior Partner KPMG, said:

      “The business trading environment remains complex and it is still a mixed picture when it comes to reported business confidence. This complexity, coupled with a subdued economic outlook, means chief execs continue to pause their future spending plans, including hiring.

      “Given the speculation around upcoming Budget measures, it's unlikely we'll see a significant shift in recruitment patterns in the near term as businesses evaluate their investment strategies in response to policy commitments and the rapid pace of change brought by AI and new technologies.”

      Neil Carberry, REC Chief Executive, said:

      “Employers need a shot of confidence along with their seasonal flu jabs this autumn. August saw recent declines in the market moderating, and a few positive signs – like an improving market for temps in the Midlands. Overall, permanent placements are declining at their slowest rate since May, and the reduction in temporary billings also eased. There is certainly potential out there - but with fewer vacancies and more candidates looking for work, the overall picture is still subdued. While we have seen a summer slowdown, we will hopefully see more positive signs when the September data come through next month.

      “All eyes are now on the Autumn Budget, in hope now that the Chancellor won’t do any further damage to the labour market with costs on hiring. For the economy to thrive, the Budget must recognise the need for investment in people. Long-term investment in skills, workforce stability, a more practical approach to the Employment Right Bill and meaningful partnerships with employers will yield far more enduring returns than short-term fixes.”


      Contacts

      KPMG
      Claire Barratt
      Deputy Head of Media Relations
      T: +44 (0)7923 439264
      claire.barratt@kpmg.co.uk

      REC
      Hamant Verma
      Communications Manager
      T: +44 (0)20 7009 2129
      hamant.verma@rec.uk.com

      S&P Global
      Annabel Fiddes
      Economics Associate Director
      S&P Global Market Intelligence
      T: +44 (0)1491 461 010
      annabel.fiddes@spglobal.com

      Hannah Brook
      EMEA Communications Manager
      S&P Global Market Intelligence
      T: +44-7483-439-812
      hannah.brook@spglobal.com
      press.mi@spglobal.com


      Methodology

      The KPMG and REC, UK Report on Jobs is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 UK recruitment and employment consultancies. 

      Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted.

      Underlying survey data are not revised after publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series.

      For further information on the survey methodology, please contact economics@spglobal.com.

      Full reports and historical data from the KPMG and REC, UK Report on Jobs are available by subscription. Please contact economics@spglobal.com.


      About KPMG UK

      KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, operates across the UK with approximately 17,000 partners and staff. The UK firm recorded a revenue of £2.99 billion in the year ended 30 September 2024. 

      KPMG is a global organisation of independent professional services firms providing Audit, Legal, Tax and Advisory services. It operates in 143 countries and territories with more than 275,000 partners and employees working in member firms around the world. Each KPMG firm is a legally distinct and separate entity and describes itself as such. KPMG International Limited is a private English company limited by guarantee. KPMG International Limited and its related entities do not provide services to clients. 


      About REC

      The REC is the voice of the recruitment industry, speaking up for great recruiters. We drive standards and empower recruitment businesses to build better futures for their candidates and themselves. We are champions of an industry which is fundamental to the strength of the UK economy. Find out more about the Recruitment & Employment Confederation at www.rec.uk.com.


      About S&P Global

      S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world.

      We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. www.spglobal.com.


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      Jonathan Holt

      Group Chief Executive, KPMG in the UK and Switzerland and Senior Partner

      KPMG in the UK