“Public borrowing continues to run ahead of the projections made at the time of the Autumn Budget. If the Chancellor remains committed to her fiscal targets, then the Spring Statement may need to contain more tax and spending changes.
“January saw a surplus of £15.4bn, driven by the receipts from self-assessment income tax, a large part of which is typically paid in that month. However, the scale of the surplus was significantly lower than the OBR projected in October, pointing to continuing pressures on public spending this year.
“January’s surplus helped bring cumulative borrowing in the first 10 months of the 2024/25 fiscal year to £118.2bn, well ahead of the OBR’s projection of £105.4bn. This puts the UK on track to borrow approximately £135.8bn for the year.”
