“Inflation returns to target, but Bank of England is unlikely to fire starting gun on interest rate cuts tomorrow” says Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK.
“The Bank of England will be encouraged by the slowdown in headline inflation, and while concerns will remain over elevated underlying price pressures, further falls in services inflation are anticipated over the coming months. Today’s data are unlikely to spur a surprise rate cut tomorrow, however, the MPC could have sufficient evidence to begin its easing cycle in August.
“While underlying price pressures have moderated somewhat, they remain uncomfortably high, with services inflation running at 5.7%. The Bank will need to see a continued fall in services inflation before it can be confident that headline inflation will stay sustainably at its 2% target in the medium term. A slower pace of pay rises may lead to weakening services inflation, helped by a loosening labour market.
“Energy prices continue to present a risk for the UK inflation outlook. Wholesale gas prices have risen by more than 30% since the start of April, and if prices remain at this level into the autumn, household energy bills could potentially rise again in October. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for inflation remains broadly positive, and we expect headline inflation to hover around the target range over the coming months.”
