“The UK public finances remain vulnerable to fragile economic outlook and tighter financing conditions. The upcoming Autumn Statement could see new spending pledges to address more immediate demands, such as safety concerns around school buildings or local authority deficits. State pensions could potentially rise by £10 billion next year under the triple-lock guarantee, leaving less money for the Government to finance critical investment projects.
“Longer-term headwinds remain, leaving uncertainty around the fiscal outlook beyond the next election. That will leave the Government facing a trade-off between higher taxes or lower spending, neither being a popular option.
“Public sector net borrowing was £11.6 billion in August, up from £8.1 billion last year. On a year-to-date basis, that was £11.3 billion lower than the OBR predicted in March. We expect public sector net borrowing to reach around £120 billion in 2023-24. This would be the lowest level since 2019-20, although it would still amount to 4.6% of GDP, compared to the Government’s medium-term target of 3% according to the current fiscal rules.”