Karim Haji, EMA and UK Head of Financial Services at KPMG, comments on June’s Money and Credit Data (published 31 July) from The Bank of England:
“The economy has moved on somewhat since the period represented by the latest Money and Credit Data. Rising prices and challenging economic conditions persist, but we’ve seen a fall in core inflation which could signal a significant turning point for businesses and consumers.
“Some lenders are cutting mortgage rates, creating a more competitive market. I expect more reductions to follow, boosting lending rates, and breathing some life back into a property market that is far cooler than this time last year.” Net approvals for house purchases, which is an indicator of future borrowing, increased to 54,700 in June, the highest since October 2022.
Karim continues: “The regulatory environment has also progressed with the introduction of the Financial Conduct Authority’s Consumer Duty rules, which emphasises the need for fair value and good customer outcomes. Amid this increasing focus on support for customers, it could be that the downward pressure on mortgages, consumer and business lending will subside.
“Yet, most commentators are pencilling in more rises in the base rate, so for the time being it is likely the relatively higher cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers will remain. While developments in recent weeks are encouraging the low-rate environment that we all became used to following the financial crisis now feels like ancient history. For now, the pressures on households are significant, and we can see this reflected in the deposits into National Savings and Investment accounts, which fell for the third consecutive month to net zero in June, as well as the notable jump in spending on credit.” Net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals rose to £1.7 billion in June, following a £0.5 billion decrease in May. This is the highest net consumer credit borrowing since April 2018.
