“Headline inflation fell in June thanks to further improvements in food and energy prices. While the Bank of England will welcome the fall in inflation, it is unlikely to substantially change its hawkish policy stance as inflation continues to run significantly above target.
“June also saw a fall in services and core inflation, which could point to weakening of underlying inflationary pressures, following a string of increases fuelled by strong wage pressures in the labour market.
“Inflation is likely to continue to fall in the coming months on the back of sustained disinflationary pressures from food and energy. Despite this, inflation is unlikely to return to target before early 2025. We expect inflation to average 7.5% this year before falling to 3% in 2024.”