The M&A market operates best on confidence and stability, so inevitably recent geopolitical events will have an impact at the edges – the war in Iran being likely to push energy and food prices up, and with that inflation. Interest rate reductions may not happen – and indeed the base rate could even rise. That remains to be seen. However, there have been many global events in recent years that have been navigated, and I believe that we can still look at the market with confidence due to three key factors.
Firstly, there is a stable lending market. Interest rates may remain where they are or even slightly increase – but we’re not in interest rate ‘shock’ territory. Debt is generally affordable and rates are reasonably predictable.
Secondly, there is an active buyer audience. Private equity houses in particular are keen to deploy accumulated capital into strong, quality assets. They are also frequently getting behind trade buyers, backing them in portfolio-based buy and build strategies especially in the professional services sector. This remains the most active sector in the market currently and that can be expected to continue.
Thirdly, there is a willing seller base. The motivation to sell varies of course and could be for a myriad of reasons. Changes to inheritance tax (IHT) is one factor motivating some founders or family owners to contemplate making an exit (whole or partial), for example.
Given these factors, my expectation is that 2026 will continue to see healthy levels of activity – creating opportunity for both sellers and buyers. In particular, competition for quality assets will stay high. By ‘quality’ I mean businesses that are achieving revenue or market share growth, that know their market, have a clear strategy moving forward, have appropriate technology platforms and operating systems in place, and have capable and hungry management teams.