Top risks forecast

In our latest CEO Outlook survey, most global CEOs named geopolitics and political uncertainty the top threats to organizational growth.

For several decades, businesses reacted to geopolitical changes instead of actively anticipating them. As geopolitical turbulence grows and alliances shift, leaders need to anticipate and respond proactively, rather than reactively to geopolitical events.

Eurasia Group releases a report each year forecasting potential geopolitical risks that may play out over the upcoming year. Our report assesses the relationship between these potential risks and broader geopolitical trends and their potential impact on global business.

Top risks forecast

Bottom lines for business in 2024 and beyond.

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Top risks forecast

Executive summary

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Trade policy restrictions

Global trade and investment patterns are shifting. The future of supply chains and economic integration are becoming more dependent on national security priorities and increased policy interventions.

Vulnerability calls for operational resilience

Conflict escalation is now the norm, as historical collective security arrangements have been disrupted by a lack of global leadership. Despite this reality, few corporations have implemented resilience strategies.

AI governance gaps

The global regulatory environment for emerging technology is growing more complex and fragmented, meaning businesses will have to spend more time, money and effort steering their companies through uncharted waters.

What can business leaders do?

The world has become a much more geopolitically complex place, and these complexities are only expected to grow. Business leaders need to focus on building strategies and frameworks that take their geopolitical response from reactive to proactive, including developing holistic geopolitical risk management approaches.

There are five steps business leaders can start to take today:

Use dynamic risk assessment to prioritize and quantify risk
Geopolitical risks rarely exist in isolation. It is crucial for companies to consider the interconnectedness of risks within their operations, supply chains and broader ecosystem.
Visualize your supply chain exposure
Supply chains are now influenced by a trade policy that forces businesses toward new trading partners at a time when cyber and geopolitical exposure are increasing. Mitigating these risks requires a multifaceted approach.
Integrate trusted AI into your business
Companies need to harness the power of AI and accelerate thoughtful adoption while recognizing the potential risks. AI strategies should be firmly rooted in ethical conduct and responsible practices.
Drive sustainable innovation to prevent disruptive regulation
In today’s increasingly disruptive world of climate disasters, political conflict and societal inequalities, rapid ESG progress is crucial to achieving a more sustainable future. Leaders can use the power of ESG to transform their businesses.
Develop a comprehensive public engagement strategy
Business leaders are increasingly pressured to take public positions on social and political issues such as polarizing conflicts, gender issues and net zero targets. Companies need a framework to decide when and how to communicate publicly on social and political issues.