COP30 de-brief: What are the implications for businesses?

Crowned as the “Forest COP”, the Amazonian backdrop was chosen by the Brazilian government to underscore the central role of forests and nature-based solutions in tackling the climate crisis, and the urgent need to move from promises to implementation. 

The ongoing shortfall in global climate ambition, illustrated by the so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that countries must periodically submit under the Paris Agreement, had featured prominently in the lead-up to the COP. An official review of 64 updated NDCs showed that although such plans are starting to bend global emissions downward, their full implementation would only lower emissions by 17% by 2035 compared to the respective countries’ 2019 emission levels. This would fall far short of the emission reductions that are needed to hold warming to 1.5°C by end of century. 

During the COP itself, negotiations thus focused on raising ambition in these NDCs and accelerating the energy transition and a global phase-out of fossil fuel use. At the same time, they also confronted the need to address those impacts on vulnerable populations that are now inevitable, while also ensuring a dramatic scale-up of climate finance for adaptation. The formal outcomes of the conference, which were adopted after the negotiations were extended for an additional day, have been judged by many observers to fall short of expectations. Nevertheless, many of the decisions agreed in Belém are still expected to have implications for businesses and financial institutions, providing a window into ongoing challenges, possible opportunities and emerging trends in the global transition to a net-zero economy.

During Dubai’s COP28, a historic milestone was reached when the need for a global transition away from fossil fuels was referenced for the first time in a final COP outcome. However, progress stalled at COP29 when parties failed to agree on how to implement this commitment.

At COP30, ministers from over 20 countries called for the final deal to include a ‘fossil fuel phaseout’ roadmap as a precondition for their support, but these efforts ultimately proved unsuccessful. However, the issue was taken up by the governments of Colombia and the Netherlands, which announced that in April 2026 they will host the first global conference focused exclusively on this topic. This means that the goal of a fossil fuel phase-out will be advanced by a growing coalition of the willing. For business and investors, it signals that many countries, including in the European Union, will continue to support their decarbonization targets through green industrial policies and initiatives to accelerate the shift to renewables. At the same time, it reinforces the prospect of diverging and sometimes conflicting regulatory landscapes – a ‘disorderly’ transition leading to growing risks for businesses.

In 2023, external climate finance for developing countries was estimated at USD 196 billion, which is far below the USD 1.3 trillion agreed at COP29 and needed annually by 2035. In order to scale up financial flows for both mitigation and adaptation, The Baku-to-Belém Roadmap was launched after COP29. In Belém, countries established a two-year work programme to continue to follow up on the roadmap’s implementation, and a new commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035 was also adopted. 

While private funding presently contributes only 22% of all external climate finance, it is expected to play a critical role in achieving the target agreed at COP29. The COP30 outcome explicitly reaffirmed that finance flows must become consistent with a low-carbon, climate-resilient trajectory. This means that countries will continue to explore solutions to mobilise private sources of finance, including tax incentives, green bonds, blended finance instruments, and innovative insurance products.

COP30 elevated discussions on the vital role of nature-based solutions for climate and adaptation, emphasizing forests, wetlands, and other ecosystems as critical for resilience and economic growth. Negotiations also advanced on integrating nature into the countries’ NDCs, with more Parties including forest and ocean actions, and the Nature Positive for Climate Action campaign reporting over 1,000 businesses adopting nature-related targets and disclosures. 

While the final agreement did not formally include any formal roadmap to end deforestation, as initially expected, several commitments were made to drive this agenda forward. Most notably, a Tropical Forest Forever Facility was announced ahead of the summit as a financing mechanism to protect tropical rainforests and fill the global gap in forest finance, which is estimated at USD 216 billion annually. Launched with a USD 125 billion target, the TFFF has collected several funding pledges from countries including Brazil, Indonesia, France, and Norway, but it hopes to raise up to USD 100 billion from private sources. 

While discussions on the use of unilateral trade measures to promote decarbonisation have been ongoing for several years, these became more prominent at COP30, with several countries accusing the EU of enacting restrictions to global trade through instruments such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM) and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). 

Ultimately, the EU did not back down on the use of such measures, but the need to improve international cooperation was recognised during the negotiations. In a potentially important development, COP30 also agreed to hold three future dialogues on the topic, with the outcomes of these discussions to be presented in 2028. For businesses, this outcome signals that although there is an interest in avoiding disguised restrictions on international trade, carbon pricing mechanisms are not going away, and may actually be introduced by a number of other countries and regions over the coming years.

While they were ultimately not included in the final text, critical minerals were also discussed for the first time at COP30, highlighting the potential environmental and social risks associated with scaling up the supply chains for renewable energy technologies.

While not a formal COP30 outcome, the Global Action Agenda is the pillar of the climate negotiations that focuses on mobilizing voluntary climate action from non-state actors, including businesses and investors. The COP30 presidency invested heavily in unifying its various initiatives under an overall framework and better connecting it to the formal negotiation process.

In order to showcase how this agenda can contribute to the implementation of what is agreed in the government-level negotiations, the COP30 presidency organized an event which highlighted the more than a hundred different action plans that have been adopted to accelerate solutions and mobilize capital across six thematic axes ranging from energy, industry and transport to agriculture and food systems.  

For businesses and financial institutions, these plans can represent an important blueprint to identify priorities and investment opportunities, channel resources, and engage with other stakeholders in a coordinated way.

Are you interested in hearing more about the implications that COP30 can have for businesses? On 5 December, join KPMG and Zurich Resilience Solutions for a breakfast seminar in Stockholm. You can read more about the event and register here.

You can also read more about KPMG’s delegation and participation to COP30 here.