Legal Alert: The Draft Update of the National Energy and Climate Plan 2030 Adopted by the Ministry of Climate and Environment

The NECP is based on six pillars of the energy transition:

• Lower energy prices – aiming to reduce energy production costs and decrease prices for end-users;
• Modernisation of grids and development of energy storage – upgrading the power infrastructure and expanding energy storage capacity to ensure system stability;
• Accelerated development of renewables and electrification – intensifying investment in green energy (wind, solar, etc.) and electrifying the heating and transport sectors;
• Improvement of energy efficiency – increasing the efficiency of energy use in the economy (e.g., building retrofits, industrial modernisation);
• Support for innovative technologies – development of new solutions (such as green hydrogen, CCS/CCUS) and a comprehensive financial plan for the transition;
• Just social transition – ensuring the changes are socially fair (protection of coal regions, combating energy poverty).

The plan envisages that by 2030, more than half (51.8%) of Poland’s electricity will come from renewables, with this share expected to rise to nearly 80% by 2040.

A sharp increase in the role of renewables is also expected in the district heating sector. According to the document, the share of renewable energy sources in district heating is set to reach 36.7% by 2030 and 67.6% by 2040. This transformation will be accompanied by the complete phasing out of coal as a fuel. The Ministry of Climate and Environment anticipates that coal-fired combined heat and power plants will cease operations around 2035, and from 2040 onwards, all electricity is to come from low- and zero-emission sources. Natural gas will act as a transitional fuel, with its consumption projected to peak between 2025 and 2030 and then gradually decline. As a result of these changes, the import of fossil fuels is expected to decrease by approximately 37% by 2040, which will strengthen Poland’s energy security and reduce dependence on external suppliers.

The implementation of the NECP involves enormous investments—the total outlays by 2030 are estimated at approximately PLN 1.1 trillion, making it the largest modernisation project in Poland since 1989. These funds will be allocated not only to new generation capacity, but also to the modernisation of power grids, large-scale building retrofits, the development of energy storage, as well as hydrogen and biomethane technologies.

The new NECP will be aligned with the EU’s climate and energy objectives—particularly the “Fit for 55” package and the revised Renewable Energy Directive. Poland has committed to a 53.9% reduction in emissions by 2030 and to achieving a share of renewables higher than the binding EU target.

The NECP considers two scenarios for the transition. The WEM scenario (with existing measures—“business as usual”) represents the baseline development path. According to estimates, the WEM scenario would allow for about a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990). In contrast, the WAM scenario (with additional measures—active transition) assumes the implementation of further policy and investment instruments to accelerate decarbonisation. As a result, under the WAM variant, it will be possible to more fully achieve the EU’s targets—with emission reductions reaching 53.9% and the share of renewable energy in electricity production rising to 51.8% by 2030 and 79.8% by 2040.

It is expected that the WAM scenario will be the preferred pathway for Poland’s transformation—an active climate and energy policy is anticipated to deliver higher economic growth, improved quality of life, and lower energy bills for citizens.

The adoption of the NECP will present both challenges and new opportunities for business. For the energy sector, the plan could represent the largest investment stimulus in decades—especially in areas such as renewables, energy storage, grid modernisation, and the deployment of new technologies. Power system operators and energy companies will need to prepare for accelerated decarbonisation and adapt their business models to achieve a low-emission energy mix. Meanwhile, industry and energy-intensive enterprises can, in the coming years, expect a decrease in energy costs and a lower carbon footprint, which will improve their competitive position on the EU market and facilitate access to sustainable (ESG) financing. The government emphasises that the energy transition will become a new driver of economic growth, potentially boosting Poland’s GDP growth rate by 3.6% per year—more than twice the EU average.

One of the main declared effects of the plan is the reduction of energy costs and bills for end users. According to forecasts, the unit cost of electricity production is expected to fall by approximately 11% by 2030 and 31% by 2040 (under the WAM scenario), mainly due to cheaper renewable energy and lower emission costs. This will translate into real savings for consumers: average household electricity bills are projected to be about 6% lower in 2030, 18% lower in 2035, and 27% lower in 2040 compared to current levels. Similar reductions in energy prices will be felt by businesses—with industrial sector bills expected to decrease by 9%, 21%, and 28% in 2030/2035/2040 respectively, and by 7%, 20%, and 29% in the services sector. The plan is also expected to include a package of social and protective measures to ensure a just transition—such as subsidies for building retrofits, social tariffs for the most vulnerable, investments in improving energy efficiency in municipal housing, and other initiatives aimed at reducing energy poverty and significantly improving air quality. 

The update to the NECP adopted by the Ministry of Climate and Environment may set a clear and long-term direction for Poland’s energy and climate policy. For businesses, this will mean the need to adapt to new realities—ranging from more ambitious emission reduction targets and the rapid development of renewables and infrastructure to new legal regulations.

The updated NECP will be submitted this week to the Joint Government and Local Government Committee for review, and subsequently will be forwarded for consideration by the Council of Ministers.