Airlines have been busy repairing balance sheets and working to decrease debts accumulated during the pandemic period. Higher interest rates are redefining aviation finance.
There were modest levels of capital markets issuance during the first half of 2023, which only started to tick up again towards the end of the year.
The interest rate chart shows central bank base rates from the US, the EU and the UK, which shows a steep increase from almost zero at the end of 2021 to the end of 2022, followed by a shallower increase to the middle of last year when central banks began to hold rates around 5% for the US and the UK, and at 4% in the Eurozone.
The consensus appears to be that interest rates will remain higher for longer and that they will remain stable for the near term so long as inflation remains under control. The chart shows the steep rise in inflation to mid-2022 when it started to decline as interest rate rose. The volatile geopolitical situation remains an inflationary risk, with fuel prices spiking on the back of escalating conflict in the Middle East and the Red Sea area, where Houthis rebels are restricting trade through the Suez Canal disrupting the supply of food and goods.
The steady rise in inflation has caused the cost of living to rise substantially. Even though inflation has begun to decline, that sharp rise is only now starting to feed into consumer loans and spending patterns. There is the concern that interest rate rises have not yet been materially passed through to consumers and that air travel spend may reduce to accommodate the general increase in borrowing. Low cost airlines – especially in the US – have referred to a softening of demand as the low fare sector is impacted by lower discretionary spending.
Air travel is expected to continue to grow with many industry experts very positive for the future, but that growth rate experienced immediately after the pandemic is expected to “normalise” to pre-Covid levels.
Towards the end of 2022, when interest rates were ticking up and inflation was increasing, many aviation professionals had expected demand to fall off as spending reduced. Vinodh Srinivasan, co-head of the Structured Credit Group at Mizuho Americas, admitted that last year he “underestimated the desire for everyone to spend this last summer” and that one of the main reasons interest rates have remained high is because “the US consumer has not stopped spending”. Srinivasan, along with many aviation bankers, believes that rates will stay at the current high level for longer.
“I don’t see it going up materially, but I don’t see it coming down either,” he says. Back in October when his interview was recorded, JP Morgan’s Streeter mentioned that the market was bracing for higher for longer (the 10yr Treasury in the US was near the cycle peak at ~5%).
Checking back in with him in January for this publication and clearly the forecast for rates has shifted down since the Fed “pivot” in December 2023. With rates “not as high for not as long”, the 10yr is now ~90bp below the October high and JP Morgan forecasts the 10yr to fall further from the current ~4.10% to 3.65% by YE24. 5yr all-in coupons for the lessors in the US$ bond market have correspondingly rallied with BOC Aviation recently printing a 5.0% coupon, Air Lease 5.1%, Avolon 5.75%, and Aircastle 5.95% amongst the deals issued year-to-date in 2024.
Ryan McKenna, chief executive of Griffin Global Asset Management (Griffin), has been forecasting higher- for-longer rates for some time but he has also been expecting recessions, which has not materialised thus far in the US or larger economies.
“It will be an incredible success for policy makers if large economies are able to avoid a recession given all of the macroeconomic headwinds,” says McKenna. “Inflation remains a serious problem and the geopolitical issues with Russia and Ukraine have been prolonged. The addition of the unfolding situation in the Middle East adds even more pressure to the global economy. Yet with all of that, global consumers – with US consumers leading the way – have continued to spend. That’s really amazing in the face of such high interest rates and the pressure from central bankers to cool the economy. The economy remains strong, but I am particularly concerned about the post Covid bounce back turning into a recession.”