KPMG-UNDP-2026-mid-year-budget-highlights

The 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review comes at an important juncture in Ghana’s economic reset. While the global economy remains resilient, geopolitical tensions, shifting trade dynamics and volatilities in the commodity market continue to create uncertainty for policymakers, businesses and investors. Against this backdrop, the mid-year review provides an opportunity to assess the progress made under the Government of Ghana’s agenda of Resetting for Growth, Jobs, and Economic Transformation and the extent to which early gains are translating into a stronger economic foundation.

Global growth remains uneven, while many emerging and developing economies continue to contend with increasing debt burdens, tightening financial conditions and external vulnerabilities. For Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to remain relatively stable at 4.3% in 2026.

Under these circumstances, Ghana’s economy has continued to build on the progress recorded in 2025. The 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review presents an economy that is translating macroeconomic stability into growth, investment and transformation. The economy outperformed expectations in the first quarter of 2026, with real GDP growth of 6.4%, exceeding the annual target of 4.8%. Growth in the non-oil sector was also strong at 6.3% as at the first quarter, surpassing its year-end target of 4.9% and highlighting the strength of economic activity beyond the oil sector.

Progress is also evident in the inflation outlook, with inflation remaining low at 5.3% by June 2026.The Ghana Cedi experienced moderate depreciation over the first half of 2026, but volatility has been much less than in previous years.

The Cedi depreciated by 7.9% against the US Dollar, 6.5% against the British Pound and 5.3% against the Euro.

Ghana’s debt position has also improved, with public debt declining from 61.8% of GDP in 2024 to 44.7% in 2025 and then increasing slightly to 45.1% by June 2026. The improvement in the country’s debt dynamics has eased debt service pressure and strengthened debt sustainability, while progress under the debt restructuring programme and the IMF-supported reform agenda has contributed to restoring fiscal credibility and investor confidence. These developments provide a stronger foundation for economic growth and create a greater fiscal space to support the Government’s transformation agenda.

For businesses, investors and citizens, the Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review highlights four priorities for the remainder of 2026:

The reduction in inflation, improved exchange rate stability, stronger external buffers and declining debt levels provide a more credible platform for economic activity. The immediate priority is to institutionalise these gains and ensure that the progress achieved is durable.

The next phase of Ghana’s economic journey must be defined by the ability to translate the macroeconomic stability into tangible improvements in productivity, employment and household incomes. Programmes such as the 24-Hour Economy and the Big Push infrastructure programme have the potential to unlock economic activity and support private sector growth.

Ghana’s infrastructure development ambitions cannot be financed by public resources alone. The restored macroeconomic stability presents an opportunity to rebuild investor confidence and mobilise domestic and international private capital towards productive sectors. This will require a predictable environment, transparent procurement, effective public-private partnerships and stronger governance.

It is important that the benefits of the recovery extend beyond macroeconomic indicators as Ghana transitions from stabilisation to growth. Continuous investments in healthcare, education, social protection and women’s economic empowerment will be critical to ensuring that growth is all inclusive and that vulnerable households are not left behind. The challenge will be to balance fiscal consolidation with the social investments required to build a productive and resilient population.

The Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review also highlights the importance of strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation and improving tax administration. Ongoing VAT reforms and measures to reduce revenue leakages demonstrate Government’s commitment to broadening the revenue base while supporting investments and economic activity.

The progress recorded in the first half of 2026 provides a strong platform for the next phase of Ghana’s economic transformation. Sustaining these gains will depend on sound public financial management and collaboration between the public and private sectors.

At KPMG, our role remains clear: to help clients understand the implications of these developments and navigate the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Ghana has made meaningful progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence. The focus now must be on translating these gains into improving productivity, stronger private sector investment and quality jobs.