Nordic Deal Trend Report Q3 2024

Greetings and welcome to the third edition of KPMG's Nordic Deal Trend Report for 2024. This report showcases the key M&A trends and developments across the Nordic region in the first three quarters of the year. While the report encompasses the entire Nordic region, this edition has been customized slightly to provide valuable insights specifically for our Danish audience.

As we conclude the third quarter of 2024, we note the Nordic M&A activity is up to par with the previous couple of years – at least when looking at number of announced deals. With 710 announced deals in Q3, the average per quarter in 2024 stands at 838, compared to an average of 861 per quarter in 2023, 879 in 2022 and 733 in 2021.

Looking at announced value, however, we note somewhat of an uptick in the sense that the aggregate deal value has risen in the first three quarters of the year, averaging around EUR42bn per quarter in 2024. This is compared to an average of EUR36bn per quarter last year. Expectedly, this can partly be explained by an emphasis on deals taking place with larger, more stable businesses rather than smaller assets, and the fact that we note a more stable, downwards-trending inflation level compared to what we have experienced earlier.

The interesting part, now, is to witness to which extent the recently, lowered interest rates will impact the appetite for M&A across the Nordics and foster a sense of relief amid global uncertainties. Additionally, the considerable dry powder held by PE funds from previous years is anticipated to be deployed throughout rest of 2024 and into the new year. Also, noting that there currently are more than 140 Danish businesses under private-equity ownership with a holding period of more than six years, we also expect a rise in exits here.

One consistent aspect of deal making across the Nordics – and one we have touched upon in numerous earlier reports – is the unchanged industry split of announced deals comparing this quarter to the previous one. The tech segment leads the way, comprising 27% of announced deals, followed by manufacturing, services, real estate, and consumer markets, each ranging from 10% to 15%. Collectively, the top five sectors account for just over 75% of the announced deals. In essence, a significant feature of Nordic M&A continues to lie in its contribution to the global tech domain. Nordic companies spearhead innovation, attracting substantial investment and acquisition interest.

Summing up, the Nordic market maintains its resilience when compared to historical benchmarks, and there is no sign that the robust deal activity seen over the recent quarters will not persist rest of this year and well into 2025 – on the contrary, signs are showing that Nordic M&A may, in fact, heat up further in the near future.

Wishing you an enjoyable autumn, we eagerly anticipate discovering what the final quarter of this year and the following year have in store for us from an M&A perspective.