Nordic Deal Trend Report Q1 2025

Welcome to the latest edition of the Danish version of KPMG’s Nordic Deal Trend Report where we explore deal activity across the broader Nordics throughout the first quarter of 2025.

As we examine the number of announced deals since the beginning of 2025, it is apparent that M&A activity has experienced a relatively sluggish start to the year, particularly in terms of deal volume. Compared to the final quarter of 2024, which saw 1.043 deals, Q1 2025 has thus far witnessed only 646 announced transactions. This represents the most subdued start to a new year since 2021 and, notably, marks the second-lowest quarterly announced deal level in the past four years.

The underlying uncertainty in the market could very well stem from the aggressive tariff policies and geopolitical unrest in many areas around the world, causing dealmakers to hit pause on sale processes, reassess business models, and re-evaluate valuations. 

This unpredictable economic environment has introduced significant volatility into global markets, prompting many companies to adopt a more cautious approach to mergers and acquisitions. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes have led to a reassessment of supply chain strategies and potential risks associated with cross-border transactions.

Despite this slow start, there are signs of cautious optimism in the M&A landscape. The underlying foundation for this more optimistic outlook can be observed in the cumulative transaction value. It is noteworthy that the total publicly disclosed deal value for the first quarter of 2025 has reached an impressive EUR42.8 billion. This figure stands out as an increase compared to the two preceding quarters and, also, the average quarterly announced values over 2023 and 2024.

We would still expect, though, that optimism remains in the market for a rebound in announcements in the coming months as the market adjusts to the new tariff landscape and business models and valuations being reassessed.

Upon examining the distribution of announced deals across various industry segments, we observe the same pattern that aligns closely with previous quarters’ trends across the region. Notably, the technology sector continues to maintain its dominant position and has, in fact, expanded its overall share of deals this year compared to the final quarter of 2024. With this growth, tech now represents close to a quarter of all announced transactions.

Following the tech sector, we see a familiar order of industries, mirroring the ranking from the previous quarter. Manufacturing holds the second position, accounting for 16% of deals. Services comes in third, comprising 15% of the total. Construction and real estate and Consumer markets round out the top five, representing 13% and 9% of deals, respectively.

It is worth noting that these top five sectors, when combined, constitute just over three quarters of all announced deals in the initial months of the year. This concentration of activity in key industries is not a new phenomenon but rather a continuation of established trends in the market.

The consistency in this distribution underscores the composition of the Nordic deal market, while also, highlights the tech industry’s growing influence and attractiveness to investors and strategic buyers alike. As we move forward, it will be interesting to monitor whether this distribution pattern holds steady or if we see shifts in the relative importance of different sectors in the deal-making landscape.

As we approach the Easter holiday, we extend our warmest wishes to you. Looking ahead to the coming months, we are intrigued to observe whether this mentioned positive momentum in deal values can translate into a broader resurgence in M&A activity, potentially signaling a more robust and confident business environment. As always, various economic factors and global events will play a role in shaping these outcomes, making it an exciting time for market observers and participants alike.