Warmest holiday greetings and welcome to the fourth and final edition of KPMG’s Nordic Deal Trend Report for 2024. This report highlights the primary M&A trends and movements throughout the Nordic region, delving into the developments of the final quarter of the year. The sustained economic resilience across the Nordics has been a solid foundation for dealmaking in our region.

Despite a slight downturn in contrast to the heightened activity of 2021 and 2022 from a value perspective, the Nordics witnessed a notable rebound in M&A throughout 2024 compared to 2023. This recovery aligns with a broader global trend of increased dealmaking involving corporates and PE-backed activity.

As we conclude the final quarter of 2024 and look ahead to what 2025 will bring, it’s clear that Nordic M&A activity has remained robust, mirroring the activity witnessed in previous years, particularly when considering the quantity of announced deals. With the final quarter tallied, total number of announced deals for the year stands at 3,772, averaging 943 announced deals per quarter, peaking in the second quarter with more than 1,105 announced deals. In perspective, we saw 3,481 total deals in 2023, 3,514 in 2022, and a significant increase compared to 2,932 in 2021.

Regarding deal values, the final numbers of 2024 affirm a positive trajectory with the combined announced deal value consistently high, averaging just above EUR41 billion per quarter, totalling nearly EUR166 billion for the entire year. Although down, compared to 2021 and 2022, this marks a considerable rise from the average of EUR36 billion per quarter in 2023. The growth in aggregate deal value can be partially attributed to heightened activity involving larger, more stable companies, and is further buoyed by a decrease in inflation volatility as seen in earlier years.

In general, the economies of the Nordic region have shown an impressive ability to withstand external pressures, including rising interest rates and geopolitical disturbances throughout 2024. Although there has been variation in performance across the individual countries, the collective dedication of the region to innovation, robust institutional frameworks, and prudent macroeconomic strategies sets a stable platform for continued economic expansion and future M&A deal levels.

Our analysis shows that industry distribution of deals in the Nordics remain consistent quarter-over-quarter. The technology sector continues to dominate, contributing 24% of the announced deals, followed by manufacturing, services, real estate, and consumer markets, each claiming a 9-15% share. Collectively, these leading sectors encompass around 75% of the deals, underscoring the Nordics’ flourishing role in shaping the global tech landscape and underpinning the continued innovation and diversity across the Nordic countries and multiple sectors to showcase attractiveness to investors and acquirers alike.

In wrapping up, the resilience of the Nordic M&A marketplace is affirmed once again, as it stands strong against historical assessment. The consistent deal activity we’ve observed is expected to press forward and show vigorous persistence going into the new year. Early signals suggest that we may witness an intensifying trend in Nordic M&A in the year to come – namely, an enhanced economic climate, both regional and international investors seem to be increasingly confident in utilizing M&A within the Nordics to boost their market edge, penetrate new market segments, and secure cutting-edge technologies.

As we bid farewell to 2024 and look toward the burgeoning opportunities of 2025, I look forward with great anticipation to see what M&A developments the new year will bring us.