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      Commercial property overview

      Australia’s commercial property market is entering a phase of increasing divergence, with retail outperforming, industrial stabilising on structural demand, and office continuing to adjust to hybrid work and AI‑driven change.

      Easing uncertainty, as captured by the KPMG Commercial Property Uncertainty Index, has helped stabilise returns. However, elevated interest rates and weaker economic growth are expected to weigh on demand, valuations and investor sentiment.

      Looking ahead, performance will be defined by the interaction between these structural shifts and macroeconomic headwinds.



      Key insights into Australia's commercial property market

      business

      Office sector

      • Vacancy continues to rise amid a softer labour market and slowing employment growth. Weaker condition remains concentrated in lower‑grade assets.
      • Capital values have stabilised but face expansion risk from higher interest rates and bond yields.
      • Returns remain modest with improving capital growth. However, demand uncertainty persists due to structural shifts in office usage due to hybrid working and AI.
      storefront

      Retail sector

      • Retail is currently the strongest performing sector driven by both rental growth and recovering capital values. 
      • Conditions improved relative to the last publication with falling vacancy, supported by resilient spending and limited new supply. However, this data is yet to fully reflect evolving consumer conditions amid higher interest rates and persistent inflation driven by the Iran conflict.
      • Recent cap rate compression reflects solid investor demand, particularly for prime assets – though the outlook is exposed to softer consumer confidence and higher rates.
      factory

      Industrial sector

      • Fundamentals remain relatively tight but gradual easing is expected with new supply and softer demand.
      • Returns remain solid, underpinned by income stability and recent capital growth.
      • Pricing remains stable, although it will be important to assess whether supportive structural demand – such as from e-commerce, logistics, and data centres – can offset pressures from rising interest rates and long-term bond yields.


      Download the report

      KPMG’s forecast of the complex commercial property market, highlighting current dynamics across different cities globally.

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      Commercial Property Market Update – June 2026

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      Commercial Property Market Update – December 2025

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      Commercial Property Market Update – June 2025

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      Commercial Property Market Update – July 2024



      Why KPMG

      KPMG’s team of specialist economists analyse the commercial property market, providing historic and forecast figures.

      If KPMG can help your business in any way navigate the current business environment and plan for any future developments that are facing the economic climate, please contact us.



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