KPMG comments on today’s GDP data
“Recession still on the cards despite brightening outlook” says Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK.
“Recession still on the cards despite brightening outlook” says Yael Selfin
“The marked fall in wholesale gas prices and easing of supply chain disruptions provided a welcome boost to economic prospects at the start of 2023. But this may not be sufficient to stave off a recession in the first half of this year, as consumer spending remains weak with households continuing to be squeezed by elevated prices and higher interest rates.
“However, we expect the current downturn to be shallower and shorter than previously thought, with stronger business sentiment and a steady fall in inflation expected to support the recovery in the second half of the year. Although our latest forecasts see the UK set for a 0.4% fall in GDP this year and only 0.6% growth in 2024 overall due to the weak start and the lack of fiscal momentum and business investment to bolster medium term recovery.
“UK GDP increased by 0.3% in January, up from a contraction of 0.5% in December, driven by a recovery in services output and a fall in the number of days lost to industrial action.”
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