Proactive management of Emerging Risks will be a key priority for organisations for the foreseeable future, as polycrisis has become the new normal. We have witnessed a slew of events from a pandemic to geo-political conflicts, disrupting climate change threats and the rapid development of AI that have tested the resilience of organisations and have brought to fore the interdependencies of the wider ecosystem.
Throughout the emergence of this rapidly evolving Risk and threat landscape, organisations are expected to be more agile, transparent and trustworthy. Does your organisation have a structured approach to manage and respond to the rapidly evolving Emerging Risks landscape?
The Emerging Risks regulatory imperative will be at the heart of organisations for the foreseeable future. Regulators and Government bodies are increasingly viewing resilience and proactive Risk management practices as a key focus area to achieve resilience of an interdependent ecosystem.
As part of the 2022/23 business plan, the PRA has laid out that it would expect organisations to be at the forefront of identifying Emerging Risks (Bank of England, 2022). The PRA has put in place a horizon-scanning programme to identify Emerging Risks, regulatory arbitrage and potentially dangerous practices.
The UK Government Resilience Framework published in late 2022 also highlights the necessity for a clear understanding of the upcoming Risks; and that prevention, preparation and resilience must be considered in the strategic approach to these challenges (UK Government, 2022).
Organisations must act quickly in order to develop resilient Risk Management practices and tools to:
- Swiftly scan and filter the relevant Emerging Risks and threats
- Assess and clearly articulate their tangible business impact
- Enable and embed an “always on” Framework to manage, mitigate and integrate those Risks into the enterprise wise Risk Framework
How are organisations responding to Emerging Risks?
Organisations have a tremendous opportunity to build on existing capabilities and put in place a structured approach to identifying and responding to the Emerging Risks landscape. In order to be successful in the management and identification of Emerging Risks, they will be expected to:
- Bring together complementary and adjunct capabilities (e.g. operational Risk, crisis management, business capability, horizon scanning in the economist office)
- Integrate Emerging Risk management measures and tools into existing Risk Frameworks to meet new global regulatory, investor and stakeholder demands
- Focus on appropriate resourcing of functional and domain subject matters experts and upskilling of existing resources
One such recent example has been the Ukraine and Russia conflict, which is acting as an accelerator to the energy crisis in Europe, the region most dependent on the energy supply from Russia. (Besson, 2022).
- The EU imports 90% of its needs in natural gas (41%) from Russia, and the rest primarily come from Norway (24%) and Algeria (11%)
- The EU is also dependent on Russia for its imports of oil and coal: 27% of oil imports and 46% of coal imports are from Russia
The conflict has forced EU Countries to identify a wide range of new Emerging Risks related to energy supply disruptions, which are detrimental to both the EU economy and the geopolitical landscape. These Emerging Risks could have a huge impact to all sectors, bringing a wide number of disruptions like that of the pandemic crisis (e.g. cost pressures, business continuity and availability of key operational systems).
We believe that organisations have an opportunity to build clear and concise Frameworks, which enable them to swiftly scan and filter potential energy crisis Risks, threats and responses. In 2023/24, a clear and structured integrated model to identify Emerging Risks and treatments should be the imperative priority for all organisations.
This leads us to the ultimate question – do you have a structured Framework to manage the constantly evolving Risk and threat landscape currently in place? And if so, is your programme ready to tackle new threats and resultant responses? Now is the time to take action to accelerate your journey to becoming a more Emerging Risk resilient business. Please reach out for a conversation to discuss your strategic Emerging Risk solutions using our KPMG Emerging Risk Framework as an anchor.
KPMG Emerging Risk Framework
Our vision for our clients is the KPMG 3T Emerging Risk Framework, incorporating our 3 components - Trigger, Triage and Treatment. This provides a structured, repeatable approach to enable, embed and operationalise a sustainable solution to proactively manage and respond to an evolving Risk landscape. We can help your organisation on its transformation journey toward a future state where you can benefit from:
- Trigger - An integrated approach for holistic identification of Emerging Risk themes
- Triage - An agile and scalable approach to manage Emerging Risk with clear treatment approaches
- Treatment - A rapid integration of Emerging Risk themes into the ERMF leveraging existing Governance and Monitoring processes
How KPMG can help
KPMG can help organisations achieve a tailored Emerging Risk Framework design journey. We have supported a number of global banks, corporations and firms, delivering extensive programmes to help building a consistent approach to managing a wide range of new Emerging Risks, from Reputational and Sustainability Risk to Climate Risk.
Our subject matter professionals have years of experience and knowledge in Risk Transformation and Strategy; Compliance and Target Operating Model reviews and implementation. In collaboration with our subject matter experts, we have developed expert methodologies and tools to define the optimal Enterprise-Wide Risk Management Framework for leading organisations.
Bibliography
Bank of England. (2022). Prudential Regulation Authority Business Plan 2022/23. Retrieved from: Prudential Regulation Authority Business Plan 2022/23 | Bank of England
UK Government. (2022). The UK Government Resilience Framework. Retrieved from: The UK Government Resilience Framework (HTML) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
Valérie Besson. (2022). The Ukraine/Russia conflict: an accelerator to the energy crisis. Retrieved from: How the Russia/Ukraine crisis impacts energy industry? - KPMG France
